华鲁恒升(600426)：景气承压 公司经营保持稳健

Group 1 - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, down 33.7% year-on-year and 17.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in product sales and market prices, with significant price changes observed in key products such as urea (-2.5%), DMF (-1.7%), and DMC (-14.2%) [2] - The company’s gross margin improved to 16.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin remained stable at 9.9% [2] Group 2 - The industry is experiencing a downturn, leading to capacity elimination, while new projects in Jingzhou are expected to contribute to growth [3] - Market prices for key products in Q2 2025 show mixed trends, with urea prices increasing by 7.9% and DMC by 3.3%, while others like adipic acid and acetic acid saw declines [3] - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by stable agricultural demand, new downstream applications, and the gradual digestion of new capacity [3] Group 3 - The company is actively developing new fine chemical materials to enhance product value, with ongoing projects in both the Dezhou headquarters and Jingzhou base [4] - The company has a strong engineering capability and cost advantages, with a diversified product portfolio expected to mitigate operational volatility [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.72 billion, 4.16 billion, and 4.70 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]