Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy (SH:600419) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:35Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 625 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -73 million yuan, a significant decline of 1713.36% year-on-year [1] - Despite a slight revenue decline, the company achieved a double-digit growth in dairy product sales, with a total volume of 74,500 tons, representing a 12% increase year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on eliminating low-yield cows, which has temporarily pressured profits but is expected to improve gradually as operational efficiency increases [3] Revenue Breakdown - Dairy product revenue was segmented into three categories: ambient dairy products (347 million yuan, -4.37% YoY), chilled dairy products (239 million yuan, -0.64% YoY), and livestock products (17 million yuan, -44.28% YoY), indicating resilience in chilled products despite overall industry weakness [2] - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels was 545 million yuan and 60 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 3.18% and 18.94% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 4.40% and 5.87%, accounting for 59% and 41% of total revenue [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 14.63% and -11.74%, down 1.81 and 12.45 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3] - The company increased its focus on cost management, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios at 6.87%, 4.21%, 1.19%, and 0.82%, showing slight increases in sales and management expenses [3] - The reduction in the number of cows from 64,800 at the end of 2024 to 56,300 at the end of Q1 2025 resulted in a non-current asset disposal loss of 117 million yuan, significantly impacting profitability [3] Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company adopted flexible sales strategies in response to market changes, focusing on promotional activities in both domestic and foreign markets to stabilize product sales [4] - Efforts to expand distribution channels included deepening penetration in southern Xinjiang and entering key scenic areas and chain restaurants, as well as exploring direct sales models in major cities [4] - The company launched five new products in Q1 2025, including a new milk powder line, and successfully established product displays in 100 stores [4] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 71 million yuan, 201 million yuan, and 247 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 62.63%, 182.52%, and 23.13% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 47X, 17X, and 14X for 2025-2027 [4]