证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 22 年 月 日 食品饮料 原奶及牧业调研报告：肉奶周期共振，牧业弹性释放 具体事件：当前中国原奶及牛肉均处于周期底部，奶牛行业正在逐步出清 迈向原奶供需平衡，肉牛行业已实现牛肉价格回升，近期我们前往优然牧 业、中国圣牧调研牧业近期情况。 分析师 王玲瑶 执业证书编号：S0680524060005 邮箱：wanglingyao@gszq.com 相关研究 原奶：周期底部确认，产能出清可期。从原奶周期来看，当前中国正处于 周期底部，7 月 10 日生鲜乳价格 3.04 元/kg，同比-6.17%，且相对之前 的原奶周期，当前受限于牧业规模化率提升、终端需求相对承压，奶价已 经历 3 年下行阶段，周期底部时间更长，牧业亏损面超 90%。根据中国奶 业协会，2024 年奶牛存栏同比减少 4.5%，2025 年奶价进一步下行，对 牧业盈利能力及资金周转形成更大压力，预计将进一步推动行业产能出 清。2025 年上半年我们也看到一定边际好转迹象，25H1 原奶价格降幅显 著收窄，奶粉喷粉量持续减少，5 月中旬喷粉量回落至 5000-6000 吨/天， ...

证券之星吴凡 面对当前原奶价格下行、奶源阶段性过剩以及市场竞争加剧的严峻形势，新疆乳企天润乳业（600419） (600419.SH)的业绩仍旧承压。公司近日披露的2025年半年度业绩预亏公告显示，预计上半年实现归母 净利润为亏损2600万元至1800万元。证券之星了解到，上半年公司加大对低产奶牛的处置、销售大包奶 粉亏损、计提生物资产减值准备以及加大市场投入力度，是致使利润亏损的主因。 值得注意的是，上半年天润乳业扣非归母净利润呈现4600万元至6700万元的盈利。方正证券在研报中认 为，公司第二季度起处理牛只进入正常的淘汰率水平，非经影响预计大幅减少，利润端得到显著修复。 此外，天润乳业将今年的营收目标定为30亿元，需要看到的是，由于公司自有奶源较高，在目前国内奶 价仍未走出行业低谷期的背景下，公司主业利润修复的节奏仍可能受到制约。 存货减值、处置牛只致经营承压 今年上半年，天润乳业亏损"重灾区"主要集中在一季度。公司此前发布的一季报显示，整体营收同比下 滑2.5%至6.25亿元，归母净利润则由盈转亏至7330.36万元，降幅达到1713.36%。对于利润大幅跳水的 原因，公司解释称，主要系报告期公司加大 ...

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司关于 关于控股股东减持公司可转换公司债券的公告 一、股东配售可转债的情况 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意新疆天润乳业股份有限公司向不特 定对象发行可转换公司债券注册的批复》（证监许可〔2024〕899 号），公司于 2024 年 10 月 24 日向不特定对象发行了 990.00 万张可转换公司债券，每张面值 100 元，发行总额 99,000.00 万元，发行期限 6 年。经上海证券交易所自律监管 决定书〔2024〕149 号文同意，公司本次发行的 99,000.00 万元可转换公司债券 于 2024 年 11 月 15 日在上海证券交易所上市交易，债券简称"天润转债"，债 券代码"110097"。 公 司 控 股 股 东 国 资 公 司 通 过 优 先 配 售 认 购 天 润 转 债 307,890,000 元 （3,078,900 张），占发行总量的 31.10%。 1 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 二、可转债减持情况 2025 年 7 月 15 日，公司收到国资公司通知，2025 年 6 月 26 日至 2025 年 7 月 15 日期间 ...

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of Tianrun Dairy, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps 12th Division State-owned Assets Investment Development Group Co., Ltd., reduced its holdings of the company's convertible bonds by 1.0161 million units, accounting for 10.26% of the total issuance [1] - After the reduction, the state-owned company holds 2.0628 million units of Tianrun convertible bonds, representing 20.84% of the total issuance [1] - The company issued 9.9 million units of convertible bonds on October 24, 2024, with a face value of 100 yuan per unit, totaling 990 million yuan, with a maturity period of 6 years [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65, up 0.27% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.45% [2][4] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious with a focus on the electric power sector, which has shown strength recently [4][11] Economic Indicators - In the first half of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [18][19] - The total value of exports was 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% to 8.79 trillion yuan [19][20] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 12.92 trillion yuan in RMB loans during the same period [20][21] Industry Dynamics - The EVTank report indicates that in 2024, Chinese companies dominated the global high-rate battery market, occupying eight out of the top ten positions [30] - The construction of the largest 750 kV ring network project in China has been completed, enhancing power supply capabilities in the Xinjiang region [34] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transformation with efforts to reduce "involution" and improve overall market conditions [62] Company Performance - KingMed Diagnostics (603882.SH) is expected to report a net loss of 0.65 billion to 0.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 0.90 billion yuan in the previous year [36] - Zhongji United (605305.SH) anticipates a net profit of 0.25 billion to 0.30 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 78.02% to 113.63% year-on-year [37] - JiuLi Special Materials (002318.SZ) is set to enhance its production capabilities with a new high-tech seamless steel pipe production line [40] Financial Performance - Youfu Co., Ltd. (002427.SZ) expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a net profit forecast of 10 million to 15 million yuan [44] - MiaoKe LanDuo (60882.SH) projects a net profit increase of 56% to 89% for the first half of 2025, driven by rising cheese product sales [46] - Shengyi Technology (688183.SH) anticipates a staggering net profit growth of 432% to 471% for the same period, attributed to strategic product optimization [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co., Ltd. is forecasting a net loss for the first half of 2025, with expected losses between 26 million yuan and 18 million yuan, while also projecting a net profit (excluding non-recurring losses) between 46 million yuan and 67 million yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -26 million yuan and -18 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after excluding non-recurring losses, is projected to be between 46 million yuan and 67 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the company reported a total profit of -44.04 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at -27.91 million yuan, and a net profit of 2.39 million yuan after excluding non-recurring losses [3]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was -0.0885 yuan [3]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The anticipated performance decline is attributed to several factors: increased disposal of low-yield dairy cows leading to higher losses, losses from the sale of bulk milk powder, accounting provisions for biological asset impairment, and increased market investment support [3].

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 证券代码：600419 | 证券简称：天润乳业 | 公告编号：临 2025-034 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110097 | 债券简称：天润转债 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预亏公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 业绩预告的适用情形：净利润为负值。 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 业绩预告相关的主要财务数据情况：新疆天润乳业股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-2,600 万元到-1,800 万元，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常 性损益后的净利润为 4,600 万元到 6,700 万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 （二）业绩预告情况 经公司财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润-2,600 万元到-1,800 万元，与上年同期相比， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the dairy industry is experiencing a significant oversupply of raw milk, leading to a slowdown in the culling of dairy cows. The current contract milk price is 3.04 CNY/kg, while spot milk prices are below 2.5 CNY/kg, indicating financial strain on dairy farms [7] - The report suggests that the culling of dairy cows may accelerate in the near future due to increasing operational pressures on farms, with spot milk prices dropping to around 2.3 CNY/kg [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - For the farm sector, it is recommended to focus on Yuran Dairy (09858, Buy), which is the largest farm enterprise and is expected to benefit from the rebound in milk prices and the recovery of dairy cow fair value. The report also suggests paying attention to leading farm Modern Dairy (01117, Not Rated) [2] - In the dairy enterprise sector, the report recommends Tianrun Dairy (600419, Not Rated), Yili Group (600887, Buy), and Mengniu Dairy (02319, Buy). The current low milk prices and intense competition in the dairy product market are expected to improve as milk prices recover, benefiting both Yili and Mengniu [2]

Industry Overview - Ice cream is a frozen food made primarily from drinking water, milk, cream, sugar, and food additives, produced through various processes [1][6] - The domestic ice cream industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with market size projected to increase from 83.9 billion yuan in 2015 to 183.5 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027 [1][6][8] Market Dynamics - The average per capita ice cream consumption in China is 2.9 kg, which is higher than the Asia-Pacific average of 2.1 kg but still below the global average of 4.5 kg, indicating significant growth potential for the market [8] - Consumer acceptance of ice cream prices generally falls between 3 to 10 yuan, with 70.9% of consumers preferring this price range, while higher-priced ice creams face lower acceptance [10] Consumer Preferences - In 2025, 64.29% of consumers expressed interest in fruit and herb flavors, while 47.61% preferred nut and spice flavors, indicating a trend towards innovative flavor combinations [12] - Health-conscious trends are driving demand for low-sugar, low-fat, and additive-free ice cream products, with functional ice creams like probiotic and collagen varieties gaining popularity [20] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies in the Chinese ice cream market include Yili, Unilever (Wall's), Mengniu, and Nestlé, with market shares of 19%, 15%, 9%, and 8% respectively [14] - New brands and traditional companies are entering the market, intensifying competition [14] Development Trends - The ice cream industry is witnessing a diversification of flavors and forms, with companies innovating to meet changing consumer preferences [21] - The expansion of online sales channels, driven by e-commerce and cold chain logistics, is providing broader market access for ice cream products [23]