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梦百合(603313):营收实现稳增 期待25年利润改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 5.9% to 8.449 billion yuan for 2024, but a significant decline in net profit of 242.0% to -151 million yuan, aligning with previous performance forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached 8.449 billion yuan, with a net profit decline to -151 million yuan, primarily due to a 390 million yuan credit impairment loss and increased marketing expenses for brand promotion [1] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 36.9%, attributed to a shift in business structure with a higher proportion of lower-margin exports [3] - The operating expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 35.0%, driven by a rise in sales expenses due to enhanced marketing efforts for the company's own brand [3] Group 2: Market and Product Insights - The company achieved a 6.7% increase in overseas revenue to 6.75 billion yuan, with European revenue growing by 20.35% to 1.96 billion yuan, while North American revenue saw a slight decline of 1.14% to 4.33 billion yuan [2] - Domestic revenue increased by 3.55% to 1.482 billion yuan, with steady progress in online and offline channel development [2] - In terms of product performance, mattress revenue rose by 11.0% to 4.415 billion yuan, while sofa revenue increased by 1.2% to 1.155 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is expected to see improvements in revenue and profit by 2025, supported by a leading global production capacity and a focus on brand and channel development in the domestic market [1] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 271 million yuan, 375 million yuan, and 482 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.66, and 0.85 yuan [4] - The target price for the company is set at 8.93 yuan, based on a 19 times PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strong global production capabilities and potential demand recovery [4]