华福证券 公 司 研 究 梦百合（603313.SH） 盈利见拐点，三大逻辑推荐 投资要点： 业绩拐点已现，回购完成拟用于员工持股/激励 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 截止至 9M25 公司实现营收 67.6 亿元，同比+10.3%，实现归母净利润 1.61 亿元，同比+205%，归母净利率同比+4.9pct 至 2.4%。2025 年 5 月回购方 案实施以来，公司总计回购股份 19,406,350 股、占比 3.4%，拟用于员工持 股计划或股权激励。展望未来，我们认为 2021-2024 年原材料、产能转移、 美国双反、大客户扰动等制约公司业绩的不利因素已基本消化，后续公司 盈利在多地产能协同、规模效应共同带动下有望迎修复。 外销：行业需求、自主品牌、美国产能三重驱动向上 买入（首次评级） 驱动 1：海外家具需求有望回升，客卧智能品类景气较高。过去 3 年以美 国市场为主的海外床垫需求回落至底部区间，随着美国降息推进、住房销 售企稳回升、双反落地后供给扰动恢复，美国床垫消费有望自底部回升。 同时，全球功能沙发、电动床等客卧智能家具增长潜力大，公司已在国内、 泰国、美国等基地布局相应产能，有望实现以床垫为主、多品 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significance of entrepreneur IP in corporate online promotion and presents a ranking of entrepreneur influence on Douyin based on various metrics such as follower count, engagement, and content performance [1] Group 1: Entrepreneur IP Rankings - The top-ranked entrepreneur is Yu Chengdong from Huawei, with 17.587 million followers, gaining 1.112 million new followers in October, and receiving 943,000 likes on his content [2][7] - Lu Weibing from Xiaomi ranks second, with 2.797 million followers, adding 135,000 new followers and achieving 859,000 likes through 22 posts focused on the REDMI K90 series [2][9] - Zhou Yunjie from Haier ranks third, with 1.804 million followers, gaining 270,000 new followers and receiving over 2.07 million likes across 12 posts [2][11] Group 2: Content Performance and Engagement - Yu Chengdong's content primarily revolves around technology education and product promotion, with a notable video on noise-canceling headphones receiving over 250,000 likes [7] - Lu Weibing's most engaging post featured a product showcase and a lottery, which attracted over 270,000 participants [9] - Zhou Yunjie's content combines humanistic themes with technological strength, including a viral Mid-Autumn Festival video that garnered over 700,000 likes [11] Group 3: New Entrants and Trends - New entrants to the ranking include Xu Fei from Xiaomi, who gained 18,000 followers and received 293,000 likes on 10 posts [3] - The article notes a trend of entrepreneurs leveraging social media to enhance brand visibility and engage with audiences through storytelling and product promotion [18]

业绩一览 2025Q1-Q3 实现营收67.56 亿（同比+10.29%，下同），归母净利润1.61 亿（+205.18%），扣非归母净 利润1.44 亿（+191.84%），盈利能力显著修复。 2025Q3 单季实现营收24.40 亿（+11.98%），归母净利润0.46 亿（+122.55%），扣非归母净利润0.34 亿 （+116.11%）。 海外业务稳健增长，全球化布局优势凸显 25Q1-Q3 北美业务实现营收34.66 亿（+10.49%），欧洲区实现营收14.56 亿（+1.22%），国内实现营收 11.71 亿（+11.59%），其他地区实现营收4.52 亿（+33.03%），公司海外业务均实现稳步增长。公司已 在美国市场完成海外仓战略布局，实现核心区域全覆盖；并积极拓展欧洲市场，深化本土化运营、加速 产品迭代等，预计未来欧洲将成为公司境外线上业务的重要增长极。 2）25Q1-Q3 销售费用17.30 亿（+23.70%），主要系电商运营费用增加，提升品牌影响力，优化终端渠 道形象。 盈利预测及估值 我们预计公司2025-2027 年实现收入94.36 亿元、107.99 亿元和123.66 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that most sectors are at the bottom, suggesting opportunities for alpha layout [2] Core Viewpoints - The home furnishing sector is experiencing pressure in domestic sales, while export performance shows resilience. The overall revenue for the domestic home furnishing sector in Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 0.96% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 23.80% [10][12] - In the paper packaging sector, upstream pulp mills are reducing supply due to profit pressures, while downstream paper demand is gradually recovering, leading to a stabilization in prices [2][10] - The personal care sector is facing challenges in online sales, but offline performance remains stable, with major companies adjusting their marketing strategies to improve profitability [2][10] - The new consumption sector, driven by IP and AI glasses, is showing growth potential, with companies like Pop Mart and Meta launching new products [2][10] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales in Q3 2025 are under pressure, with revenue down 1.19% year-on-year and net profit down 15.79%. The external sales sector shows resilience with a 1.91% increase in revenue [10][12] - The performance of soft furniture companies is better than that of custom furniture companies, attributed to faster product iteration and successful online channel strategies [10][12] Paper Packaging - The paper sector is stabilizing, with net profit margins for pulp, waste paper, and specialty paper showing slight improvements. The packaging sector is experiencing stable growth, particularly in plastic and paper packaging [2][10] Personal Care - The sector is facing pressure from online competition, but offline sales remain steady. Major companies are focusing on brand and channel management to enhance profitability [2][10] New Consumption - The sector is driven by IP and AI glasses, with significant growth in emotional consumption. Companies are actively launching new products to capture market share [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.76 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][6] - The company is experiencing steady growth in both domestic and international sales, with significant performance in online channels [6][11] - The report highlights the company's strategic advantages in global layout and anticipates profit elasticity release as macro demand recovers [12] Revenue Performance - In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.04 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.44 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 6.8%, and 12.0% [5] - Domestic sales reached 1.17 billion yuan, while international sales were 5.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 11.6% and 9.3% respectively [6] Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 39.5%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for domestic sales was 52.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3 percentage points [9] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits of 220 million yuan and 400 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.38 yuan and 0.70 yuan [12][13] - The company is expected to benefit from the optimization of store operations and the stabilization of overseas online business, leading to improved profitability [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 12.20 [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6.756 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 161 million, up 205.18% year-on-year [1][6]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the recovery of domestic and international sales, improvements in the business structure, and a reduction in credit impairment losses compared to the same period last year [1][4]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its global production capacity layout, particularly in North America, and is actively expanding its brand and channel development in the domestic market [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.440 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.98%, with a net profit of RMB 46.35 million, up 122.55% year-on-year [1][6]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 2.3 percentage points to 39.5%, driven by product upgrades and business structure optimization [3][4]. Sales Performance - The company's overseas revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 9.34% to RMB 5.374 billion, with North America leading the growth at 10.49% to RMB 3.466 billion [2][4]. - Domestic sales also showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 11.59% to RMB 1.171 billion [2][4]. Cost Structure - The selling expense ratio increased by 2.8 percentage points to 25.6%, reflecting the company's investment in brand building [3][4]. - The financial expense ratio decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 2.4%, benefiting from adjustments in financing structure and reduced interest expenses [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady revenue growth due to its global production network and unique positioning in the domestic market, particularly in the memory foam category [1][4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with net profits projected at RMB 239 million, RMB 348 million, and RMB 461 million respectively [4][10].

Core Insights - The company Mengbaihe (603313.SH) reported a total revenue of 6.756 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 161 million yuan for Q3 2025 [1] - The operating cash flow showed a net inflow of 706 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - The latest debt-to-asset ratio is 61.87%, ranking 49th among disclosed peers, with an increase of 0.69 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.37 percentage points from the same period last year [3] - The latest gross profit margin stands at 39.48% [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 4.36% [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.28 yuan [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.70 times, while the inventory turnover ratio is 2.43 times, ranking 39th among disclosed peers [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 24,100, with the top ten shareholders holding a total of 292 million shares, accounting for 51.10% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is Ni Zhanggen, holding 33.9 million shares [3] - Other notable shareholders include Zhongyue Capital Management Co., Ltd. and Wu Xiaofeng, holding 8.68 million and 3.88 million shares respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Dream Lily (603313.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results, highlighting significant changes in institutional investor holdings and public fund investments [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Investor Holdings - As of October 29, 2025, 17 institutional investors disclosed holdings in Dream Lily A-shares, totaling 81.1687 million shares, which represents 14.23% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 13.69% of the shares, with a decrease of 2.48 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2: Public Fund Investments - Four public funds increased their holdings this period, with a total increase of 0.39% [2] - Seven public funds reduced their holdings, accounting for a decrease of 1.16% [2] - One new public fund was disclosed this period, while 98 public funds were not disclosed compared to the previous quarter [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Dream百合, indicating a significant increase in both revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year [1] - Dream百合 reported a revenue of approximately 6.756 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.29% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately 161 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 205.18% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, Dream百合's market capitalization stands at 5.7 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The company Mengbaihe (SH 603313) announced on October 29 that its fifth board meeting will be held on October 29, 2025, to review proposals including the use of idle fundraising for temporary working capital [1] - For the first half of 2025, Mengbaihe's revenue composition shows that the furniture manufacturing sector accounts for 99.95%, while other businesses contribute 0.05% [1] - As of the report date, Mengbaihe's market capitalization stands at 5.7 billion yuan [1]