五粮液(000858)：增长韧性强劲 25年营收目标预计5%左右

Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 891.75 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.09% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 318.53 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.44% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 70%, distributing a total of 223 billion yuan in cash dividends for 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 212.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.53% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 2024 was 69.22 billion yuan, showing a decline of 6.17% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 77.04%, a slight increase of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 678.75 billion yuan from its flagship product, Wuliangye liquor, which grew by 8.07% year-on-year [3] - The average price of Wuliangye liquor increased to 163.95 million yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.94% rise year-on-year [3] - Direct sales accounted for 41.37% of total revenue, an increase of 1.52 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, the company expects total revenue to reach 369.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.05% [4] - The company aims for a revenue target of approximately 5% growth in 2025, aligning with macroeconomic indicators [5] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 936.34 billion yuan, 1004.04 billion yuan, and 1105.95 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 334.47 billion yuan, 363.33 billion yuan, and 405.55 billion yuan [5]