Ginlong Technologies(SZ:300763) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:43Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.54 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million, a decrease of 11% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% and a year-on-year decrease of 24% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company expects a revenue of 1.52 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 10%, alongside a net profit of 195 million, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 860% and a year-on-year increase of 774% [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a slight increase in grid-connected shipments in 2024, estimating around 800,000 units, with a revenue of approximately 3.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - For Q4 2024, grid-connected shipments are expected to be around 160,000 units, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20%-30% [1] - In 2025, the company forecasts a recovery in demand, estimating total grid-connected shipments of 1.1 to 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] Energy Storage and Solar Business - The company expects a steady growth in energy storage shipments in 2024, estimating around 80,000 to 90,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with a revenue of 570 million, a year-on-year increase of 30% [2] - For Q4 2024, energy storage shipments are projected to be between 20,000 to 30,000 units [2] - The company’s residential and commercial solar power systems are expected to generate a revenue of 2.08 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [2] Financial Metrics - The company’s operating expenses for 2024 are projected to be 1.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with an expense ratio of 20.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - As of Q1 2025, the company’s inventory decreased by approximately 8% to 1.76 billion, while contract liabilities increased by 182% to 190 million [3] - The operating net cash for Q1 2025 is reported at 250 million, an increase of 260 million year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.16 billion, 1.51 billion, and 1.91 billion for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 67%, 30%, and 27% respectively [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 72, based on a 25 times PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]