双环传动(002472)：主营业务收入稳健增长 毛利率超预期

Core Insights - The company reported a 19% year-on-year growth in main business revenue for Q4 2024, with total revenue for the year reaching 8.781 billion yuan, an 8.76% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year was 1.024 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.42% increase [1] - The company is experiencing significant growth in its electric vehicle gear segment, driven by increased orders for coaxial reducers and global platform project deliveries [2] Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the main business revenue was 8.08 billion yuan, up 18.46% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.024 billion yuan, up 25.42% [1] - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 2.039 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, but main business revenue grew approximately 19.4% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 reached 25%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with nearly all business segments showing improved margins [3] Business Segments - The passenger car gear revenue accounted for 61% of total revenue, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, with electric vehicle gear revenue growing by 51% to 3.37 billion yuan [2] - The smart actuator business saw a 70% increase in revenue, reaching 640 million yuan, driven by partnerships with leading domestic robotic vacuum manufacturers [2] - The company plans to enhance its presence in the European market through local production in Hungary, responding to the growing demand for gear outsourcing from major automotive manufacturers [2] Profitability and Valuation - The company anticipates further gross margin improvements in the passenger car and smart actuator segments, supported by product upgrades and cost efficiencies [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.25 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price has been raised to 38.5 yuan, reflecting a 29% increase, with a maintained rating of "outperform the market" [3]