兴森科技(002436)：坚定投入高端封装基板业务 持续推进量产

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase for 2024 but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.53%, but reported a net profit of -0.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 193.88% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.580 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.77%, with a net profit of 0.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 62.24% [1] Business Segments - The PCB sample business is stable, with an optimized customer and product structure; revenue from the HDI board and SLP business grew due to strategic customer recovery in high-end mobile phones, generating 860.7646 million yuan in revenue and 136.1930 million yuan in net profit [2] - The FCBGA packaging substrate business faced high costs and losses from subsidiaries, with total expenses of 734.0358 million yuan for the FCBGA project, and losses of 131.7017 million yuan from Yixing Silicon Valley and 70.7008 million yuan from Guangzhou Xingke due to underutilization [2] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to high-end packaging substrate business, with semiconductor business revenue reaching 1.2848648 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.27%; the CSP packaging substrate business is expanding into storage and RF markets, benefiting from the recovery in the storage chip industry [3] - The FCBGA project is prepared for mass production, with ongoing customer certification and sample order deliveries, leading to improved yield rates [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 7.307 billion yuan, 9.206 billion yuan, and 11.784 billion yuan, with net profits of 0.154 billion yuan, 0.415 billion yuan, and 0.857 billion yuan respectively; the company is positioned as a key player in the domestic FCBGA substrate market amid a backdrop of domestic substitution [4] - The company is expected to reach a target price of 13.75 yuan based on a 56 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, maintaining a "Buy-A" investment rating [4]