思源电气(002028)：业绩符合市场预期 看好全年业绩超目标增长

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 results with revenue of 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Q1 Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.4% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 440 million yuan, increasing by 28% [1] - Gross margin stood at 30.3%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin was 13.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Domestic ultra-high voltage market has seen breakthroughs, with significant growth in grid investment; Q1 grid infrastructure completion reached 95.6 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year [2] - The company successfully won bids for 750kV equipment, marking a breakthrough in the high-end product market, which is expected to enhance gross margins in domestic operations [2] - International demand for power grid construction remains high, with transformer and high-voltage switch exports increasing by 40% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 3: Cost Management and Financial Health - Q1 2025 operating expenses were 480 million yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 14.8%, down 1.5 percentage points, indicating effective cost control [3] - Inventory at the end of Q1 2025 was 4.1 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, while contract liabilities rose to 2.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, showing solid growth foundations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 2.73 billion, 3.54 billion, and 4.56 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 33%, 30%, and 29%, respectively [4] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 21x, 16x, and 12x, with a "buy" rating maintained [4]