美国电力投资三重驱动，中国电力设备乘风而起 ——美国缺电研究系列三 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 电新证券分析师：司鑫尧 执业证书编号： S0600524120002 联系邮箱：sixy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年3月26日 摘要 备注：全文的"预计"如果没有特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所电新组预测 2 ◆ AI算力爆发叠加电网老旧，美国电力供需缺口进入"刚性扩张期"。北美AI的快速发展导致其负荷高速增长，24年发电装机需求 约1200GW，30年则需要增长至1751GW，累计需新增约550GW。同时美国电网处于"超期服役"状态，负荷激增与老旧底座 的碰撞，电网面临巨大的更新和新建压力。CSP为加速并网扫货燃气轮机，需求的爆发和供给释放的缓慢，美国电力系统将迎来 前所未有的挑战。 ◆ AIDC"高压化+自供电"演进，催生变压器需求的"乘数效应"。随着AID ...

March 20, 2026 07:26 PM GMT China's Emerging Frontiers New Power System to Fuel China's Power Equipment Capex We expect Chinese power grid equipment suppliers to benefit broadly from China's accelerated power infrastructure spending during 2026-30. Key Takeaways We reiterate Sieyuan Electric as our preferred play: We cite: 1) ongoing market share gain in China via its diversified product portfolio, 2) strong overseas order growth outlook amid ongoing global market penetration and transformer supply tightnes ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformation of the power investment landscape driven by the integration of computing power and electricity, termed "computing-electricity synergy," which is becoming a focal point in the context of the new power system and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - The planned investment scale of the State Grid during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is set to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, indicating a significant expansion in power infrastructure investment [1][9] Investment Cycle Analysis - The current power investment cycle is characterized as "deterministic," supported by four dimensions: historical investment intensity breakthrough, structural upgrades, dual demand drivers, and policy backing [9][10] - The article highlights that the power system is transitioning from a linear structure of "generation-transmission-consumption" to a new "smile curve" centered on system capabilities, with value shifting towards distribution, user sides, and power electronics [2][9] Key Infrastructure Components - The three core pillars of the new power system are identified as UHV (Ultra High Voltage), smart distribution networks, and energy storage systems [3][5] - UHV serves as the "skeleton" to address spatial mismatches in energy distribution, enabling large-scale long-distance transmission [3][19] - Smart distribution networks act as the "nervous system," facilitating precise distribution tasks and transitioning from a "passive" to an "active" role [3][51] - Energy storage systems function as "regulators," addressing the volatility of renewable energy sources and evolving from optional configurations to essential infrastructure [3][58] Demand Drivers - The demand for electricity is driven by the increasing share of renewable energy installations, which currently account for approximately 47.3%, and the rapid growth in electricity consumption from data centers, projected to double by 2030 [1][20][24] - The article notes that the global electricity consumption of data centers is expected to rise from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030, reflecting a significant increase in demand for power systems [24] Industry Chain Transformation - The traditional power industry chain is undergoing a transformation, with value migrating from centralized generation to distributed energy and user-side transactions, driven by the rise of distributed energy and market reforms [26][30] - The article outlines that the new power system's value chain is shifting towards digital grids, where IT and software integration becomes crucial, and energy storage and power electronics emerge as new core areas of value [30][31]

研究报告 Research Report 18 Mar 2026 国际工业+能源 Global Industrials + Energy 中日韩电力设备公司对比：面对海外需求大浪，维持梯度分工还是逐步对齐颗粒度？ Comparison of Power Equipment Companies: In the Face of a Massive Wave of Overseas Demand, Will the Tiered Division Persist or Gradually Converge? | | | | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 中广核电力 | Outperform | 3.80 | 13 | 12 | | 东方电气 | Outperform | 11.24 | 24 | 22 | | 上海电气 | Outperform | 2.02 | 60 | 41 | | 电能实业 | Out ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the transformer industry, particularly for Chinese companies, indicating a new era of volume and price increases in exports [2][50]. Core Insights - The demand for electricity is surging due to the data center construction wave, leading to both existing and new demand for transformers. Global data center electricity consumption is expected to double from 460 TWh in 2022 to over 1000 TWh by 2026, making data centers a key driver of electricity demand growth in various regions [3][10]. - The aging power grid in Europe and the U.S. is prompting a significant upgrade, with many transformers nearing the end of their service life. Approximately 55% of U.S. transmission transformers have been in service for over 33 years, leading to a supply shortage expected to last until 2030 [3][24]. - Chinese transformer manufacturers are positioned to benefit from this situation, with a complete and efficient supply chain that includes raw materials and production capabilities. By 2025, China's transformer export value is projected to reach 646 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [3][38]. - Chinese companies are actively expanding overseas, utilizing strategies such as "core components from China + regional assembly" to navigate trade barriers and enhance their global market share [3][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Surge in Electricity Demand from Data Centers - The report highlights that the construction of data centers is leading to an explosive increase in electricity demand, necessitating higher specifications for transformers to ensure stable power supply [3][10]. - The extreme requirements for power supply stability in data centers, particularly for AI infrastructure, are driving the demand for high-quality transformers [3][11]. Section 2: Chinese Companies in the Transformer Industry - Chinese companies dominate the transformer industry, with a complete supply chain that allows for self-sufficiency in key materials. By 2025, China's oriented silicon steel production capacity is expected to reach 4.51 million tons, accounting for 56% of global capacity [3][30]. - The export structure of Chinese transformers is improving, with the average export price per unit increasing from approximately 158,000 RMB in 2024 to 205,000 RMB in 2025, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [3][38]. Section 3: Companies Related to Transformer Exports - Key players in the transformer industry include TBEA, which leads in high-voltage transformers and has a significant share in overseas markets, and other companies like Suyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology, which are expanding their international presence [3][46][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can quickly adapt to overseas infrastructure demands, possess core high-voltage technology, and maintain stable profit margins amid raw material price fluctuations [3][50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the power equipment industry is transitioning from "high growth" to "accelerated growth," indicating strong sustainability and certainty in its performance [2][12][27] - The report highlights that the current investment strategy should focus on "marginal changes in growth," emphasizing both G (growth) and Δg (change in growth rate) [2][12][26] - The power equipment sector is expected to experience a high prosperity cycle comparable to the coal industry in 2022, driven by a reversal in performance anticipated in 2025 [3][14] Group 2 - Energy security is projected to bring further valuation premiums to the power equipment sector, as the geopolitical landscape emphasizes the need for energy independence [4][5] - The report outlines three macro trends driving demand for power equipment: reshaping of supply-side dynamics, enhancement of energy system resilience, and the reconfiguration of national strategic reserves [4][5] - The power equipment industry is positioned to benefit from the transition towards domestic energy sources, particularly in wind, solar, and nuclear energy [4][5] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing segments within the power equipment industry that align with both energy security and growth metrics [5][9] - Key focus areas include battery storage, grid equipment, synergistic computing and electricity solutions, and domestic energy sources [5][9] - The battery storage sector is identified as a core component of national strategic reserves, transitioning from commercial exploration to a strategic material [5][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the exacerbation of the "AI electricity shortage" in North America, leading to significant opportunities for Chinese power equipment companies to expand internationally. The approval of $75 billion in grid construction projects by regional grid operators and commitments from seven major tech giants to self-supply power are expected to substantially increase the demand for transformers and other power equipment. Meanwhile, domestic production capacity in North America is limited, with suppliers' production schedules extending up to two years, reinforcing the positive outlook for Chinese companies [2][3][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the anticipated surge in electricity demand driven by AI data centers, with projections indicating that by 2035, the electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. will rise from 3.5% in 2024 to 8.6% of total national electricity consumption, marking the fastest growth among all sectors [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Chinese power equipment companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the North American market's expansion. Specific companies mentioned include: - Suyuan Electric (002028, not rated) - Jinpan Technology (688676, not rated) - Igor (002922, not rated) - Anke Intelligent Electric (300617, not rated) - Shima Power (603530, not rated) - Huaming Equipment (002270, not rated) [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the approval of $75 billion in transmission expansion projects by U.S. regional grid operators is a critical driver for increased demand for power equipment. The projects include the construction of 765 kV ultra-high voltage lines, expanding the total mileage to 10,000 miles, which is four times the current mileage [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the CSP self-supply agreement and the North American ultra-high voltage planning exceeding expectations, focusing on three main lines: grid equipment, gas turbines, and high-voltage direct current power supply [1][6] - The demand for transformers is expected to remain high due to the growth of large data centers, with orders for transformers from leading overseas companies already booked for three years ahead [6] - The report anticipates significant market opportunities in the global market for SST and HVDC power systems, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2030 [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The North American grid expansion projects have been approved, totaling $75 billion, focusing on 765 kV ultra-high voltage lines, which will expand the total new line mileage to 10,000 miles, quadrupling the existing mileage [6] - The trend towards self-supply in data centers is confirmed by major companies like Microsoft and Google, which will drive demand for gas turbines as the primary power generation equipment [6] Investment Recommendations - For transformers and grid equipment, the report recommends companies such as Si Yuan Electric, Jin Pan Technology, and Igor, while also suggesting to pay attention to companies like Shima Power, Baiyun Electric, and TBEA [6] - In the power generation equipment sector, Oriental Electric is highlighted for its gas turbine products, with a focus on G50 and G15 models, which have secured export orders to high-profit markets in North America and the Middle East [6] - For AIDC direct current power supply, the report recommends companies like Sifang Co., Sunshine Power, and others involved in HVDC technology [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the CSP self-power supply agreement and the North American ultra-high voltage planning exceeding expectations, focusing on three main lines: grid equipment, gas turbines, and high-voltage direct current power supply [1][6]. - The demand for transformers is expected to remain high due to the growth of large data centers, with orders for transformers from leading overseas companies already booked for three years [6]. - The report anticipates significant market opportunities in the global market for SST and HVDC power systems, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2030 [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The North American grid is set to expand with a total of $75 billion approved for transmission expansion projects, focusing on 765 kV ultra-high voltage lines, which will quadruple the existing mileage [6]. - The trend towards self-supply in data centers is leading to increased demand for gas turbines, with major orders already secured until 2030 [6]. Investment Recommendations - For transformers and grid equipment, the report recommends companies such as Si Yuan Electric, Jinpan Technology, and Igor, while also suggesting to monitor Shima Power, Baiyun Electric, and others [6]. - In the power generation equipment sector, Oriental Electric is highlighted for its gas turbine offerings, with additional recommendations for Hailianxun [6]. - For AIDC direct current power, the report recommends Sifang Co. and Sunshine Power, while also highlighting Megmeet, Zhongheng Electric, and others for HVDC solutions [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the global supercycle in the power equipment sector, with strong management and operational capabilities driving growth [8][49] - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue of 21.21 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.16 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 37% and 54% respectively [18] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with expectations of substantial order growth, particularly in North America and Europe, contributing to a robust revenue outlook [8][32] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has evolved from a single product focus to a comprehensive range of power equipment, including high-voltage switches, transformers, and energy storage solutions, while also expanding into overseas markets [14][15] 2. Market Dynamics - The global power grid is entering a supercycle driven by increased demand for electricity and the need for infrastructure upgrades, particularly in the context of AI and renewable energy integration [49][52] - The company is well-positioned to capture market share in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on high-margin products and services [8][32] 3. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% in revenue and 34% in net profit from 2019 to 2025 [18] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 4.05 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 57.67 based on current valuations [1] 4. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from a significant increase in overseas orders, with projections of over 10 billion yuan in new orders for 2025, driven by expansion in North America and Europe [32][35] - New product lines, including energy storage and supercapacitors, are anticipated to become key growth areas, complementing the existing product portfolio [15][18] 5. Management and Strategy - The company's management team has a strong technical background and a stable ownership structure, which supports long-term strategic goals [42] - The company has implemented effective incentive mechanisms to align management performance with shareholder interests, contributing to its operational success [46]