北摩高科(002985)：起落架收入快速增长 民机刹车盘空间大

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to delayed contract signings and an increase in the proportion of lower-margin landing gear business, but anticipates a recovery in demand and growth in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 538 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 43.62%, and a net profit of 16.15 million yuan, down 92.57% year-over-year [1]. - The company's various business segments experienced revenue declines, with the aircraft brake control systems and wheels generating 163 million yuan (down 60.60%), testing and inspection services at 210 million yuan (down 35.98%), and brake discs at 66 million yuan (down 65.80%) [2]. - The landing gear business, however, saw a remarkable increase in revenue to 84 million yuan, a year-over-year growth of 1766.18%, marking it as a new growth curve for the company [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 262 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9.27%, while net profit was 54 million yuan, down 26.72% due to increased R&D expenses and credit impairment losses [3]. - The company expects demand in the military aircraft sector to gradually recover, with significant growth anticipated in the wheels and brake discs segments, and the landing gear business emerging as a new growth point [3]. - The civil aviation brake business is expected to benefit from domestic substitution opportunities, particularly as the cost of imported materials rises, leading to potential rapid growth [3]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 249 million yuan, 351 million yuan, and 459 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a downward adjustment due to increased R&D investment and a higher proportion of lower-margin landing gear revenue [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 40.60 yuan, based on a 54 times PE ratio for 2025, indicating a significant increase from the previous target of 23.46 yuan [4].