China Express(SZ:002928) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:48Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant improvement in financial performance for 2024 and 1Q25, with a return to profitability and better-than-expected results driven by cost control and other income sources [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, compared to a loss of 965 million yuan in 2023, meeting market expectations [1]. - For 1Q25, the company reported a revenue of 1.774 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 82 million yuan, representing a 232% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The company’s ASK and RPK for 2024 increased by 33% and 41% respectively, with a passenger load factor of 79.6%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Cost Management - In 2024, the company saw a decrease in unit fuel costs by 8% and a 12% reduction in unit non-fuel costs, contributing to improved profitability [1]. - The unit operating cost for ASK in 1Q25 was 0.40 yuan, down 8% year-on-year, primarily due to a 10% drop in aviation kerosene prices [2]. Other Income - The company confirmed other income of 528 million yuan in 2024, a 47% increase year-on-year, largely benefiting from changes in regional aviation subsidies [1]. - In 1Q25, the company’s unit other income grew by 19% year-on-year [2]. Development Trends - The company is expected to continue to enhance its operational capacity with an increase in the number of captains, reaching 300 by the end of 2024, an increase of 28 from the previous year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 7% and 5% to 617 million yuan and 914 million yuan respectively, mainly due to lowered fare assumptions [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15.6 times for 2025 and 10.5 times for 2026, with a target price of 9.2 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price [4].