华夏航空(002928)：Q1归母净利润高增 盈利拐点来临

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved profitability in 2024 with a significant increase in net profit in Q1 2025, indicating a strong recovery in operations and financial performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 270 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company generated operating revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of -40 million yuan, reducing losses by 230 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232% [1]. Operational Metrics - In Q1 2025, the company's capacity (ASK) increased by 24% year-on-year, with a passenger load factor only down 1 percentage point compared to the same period in 2019 [1]. - In 2024, ASK and RPK increased by 33% and 41% respectively, with a passenger load factor of 79.6%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, ASK and RPK increased by 24% and 28% respectively, with a passenger load factor of 79.8%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Fleet Expansion - The company added 5 aircraft in 2024, bringing the fleet size to 75 by year-end, and added 2 more aircraft in Q1 2025, increasing the total to 77 [2]. - The fleet includes 30 A320 series aircraft (39%), 36 CRJ900 series aircraft (47%), and 11 C909 series aircraft (14%) [2]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q1 2025, other income amounted to 360 million yuan, with improved utilization diluting unit costs [2]. - The unit operating revenue per ASK in 2024 was 0.433 yuan, down 2% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it was 0.491 yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2]. - The unit operating cost in 2024 was 0.425 yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with unit fuel costs at 0.148 yuan, down 8% [2]. Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to see continued improvement in profitability as fleet utilization increases, with potential for performance to exceed expectations [3]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a supply-demand reversal, enhancing profitability elasticity [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high proportion of tourism routes, aligning with domestic travel demand recovery [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 600 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [4]. - The expansion rate of the fleet is expected to exceed the industry average, with a gradual recovery in capacity growth and utilization [4].