宏川智慧(002930)：全年业绩承压 年度分红回报股东

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, primarily due to decreased demand in the industry leading to lower rental rates [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, down 47% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 360 million yuan, a decline of 6.2%, with a net profit of -10 million yuan, representing a 123% decrease [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 320 million yuan, down 15% year-on-year, and net profit was 20 million yuan, a decrease of 65% [1]. Operational Analysis - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced demand leading to lower rental rates, with the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) averaging 4562 points in 2024, down 2% year-on-year, and 4344 points in Q1 2025, down 6% [2]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 49.6%, an 8 percentage point decrease, primarily due to lower rental rates [2]. - The company recorded asset impairment losses of 26 million yuan, mainly related to goodwill impairment for subsidiaries [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 91.5 million yuan [3]. - The total amount for dividends and share buybacks reached 172 million yuan, exceeding the net profit for 2024 by 8.7% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak industry demand, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 200 million yuan and 240 million yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 310 million yuan and 420 million yuan [4]. - A new net profit forecast of 300 million yuan for 2027 has been introduced, while maintaining a "buy" rating [4].