阳光电源(300274)：1季度业绩大超预期 股价大幅回调已较充分反映目前不确定性

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit of 77.9 billion and 11 billion RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 8% and 17% [1] - The gross margin improved to 29.9%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 revenue and net profit reaching 27.9 billion and 3.44 billion RMB, showing growth of 8% and 55% respectively [1] - Operating cash flow reached 12.1 billion RMB, a significant increase of 73% year-on-year, with a dividend of 1.08 RMB per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 20%, up by 5 percentage points [1] Group 2: Product Performance - In 2024, inverter revenue was 29.1 billion RMB, a 5% increase, with shipments of photovoltaic inverters and wind power converters reaching 147 GW and 44 GW, growing by 13% and 38% respectively [2] - Energy storage system revenue was 25 billion RMB, a 40% increase, with shipments of 28 GWh, a substantial increase of 167%, and a gross margin of 36.7%, up by 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s overseas gross margin reached 40.3%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Valuation - The company’s stock price has significantly adjusted, reflecting uncertainties related to tariffs and competition, with U.S. business revenue accounting for 10-20% of total revenue [3] - Despite some temporary pauses in shipments of energy storage systems, production capacity is expected to resume by the end of the year, mitigating overall impact [3] - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been raised by 4%, while the 2026 forecast has been lowered by 7%, with the target price adjusted to 72.50 RMB from 104.80 RMB, maintaining a buy rating [3]