一夜回落，明晚油价调整或迎搁浅！

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is closing soon, with an expected increase of 45 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, but it has not reached the retail price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - As of April 28, the reference crude oil change rate is 1.11%, indicating a potential price increase for gasoline and diesel [4]. - There is uncertainty whether the adjustment will be a second suspension of the year or a slight increase due to the current market conditions [2][5]. - The likelihood of a price suspension is high, but a marginal increase cannot be completely ruled out [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The international crude oil market has shown a fluctuating trend during the current pricing cycle, influenced by trade negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [4]. - The market sentiment is currently pessimistic, with limited support expected from the upcoming summer demand peak in the U.S. [4][5]. - If the price adjustment results in a suspension, it will mark the second suspension since 2025, maintaining current fuel costs for consumers and logistics for the next half month [5].