PVC：价格低位运行 库存持续下降

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures prices are maintaining low levels, with a slight increase observed in the spot market, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry amid seasonal demand fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Price and Market Activity - As of April 28, PVC futures price (V2509) closed at 4989 CNY/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 720,000 lots, an increase of 100,000 lots from the previous period, while open interest decreased by 30,000 lots to 910,000 lots [1] - In the East China region, the price of acetylene-based PVC is quoted between 4740 - 4860 CNY/ton, with traders experiencing sluggish sales and downstream manufacturers primarily purchasing based on essential needs at lower prices [1] Cost Factors - Recent maintenance of some acetylene production facilities has led to a rebound in acetylene prices, which reached 2500 CNY/ton in the Inner Mongolia region, an increase of 50 CNY/ton [1] Supply Dynamics - The operating rate of the PVC industry was reported at 78.63% as of April 25, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.28 percentage points, with weekly production at 459,400 tons, up by 7,500 tons, marking a 1.66% increase [1] - The industry is experiencing a prolonged period of concentrated maintenance, with a slowdown in maintenance efforts [1] Demand Insights - A recent drop in PVC prices has stimulated some speculative demand, with pre-sale orders from PVC producers reaching 602,000 tons as of April 25, an increase of 6.02% [1] - As the May Day holiday approaches, expectations of increased downtime among downstream manufacturing enterprises are noted, with the comprehensive operating rate in downstream industries remaining stable at 48.16% [1] Export and Inventory Trends - Demand in the Indian market is reported to be decent, particularly in agriculture, while real estate demand remains weak, leading to a cautious purchasing stance among local buyers [1] - PVC social inventory has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, standing at 420,600 tons as of April 25, down 4.71% week-on-week and down 29.04% year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - With the May Day holiday approaching and the current spring construction peak season, the expected reduction in demand is limited, while supply is entering a seasonal reduction phase [1] - Despite high export volumes and continuous decline in social inventory, the overall fundamentals of the PVC market show marginal improvement, although macroeconomic and financial sentiment remains uncertain, leading to insufficient upward momentum [1]