Baosteel(SH:600019) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 06:28Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to weak steel industry conditions, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, leading to a "buy" rating for the stock [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Baosteel achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 6.60%, and a net profit of 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-over-year, which was below previous expectations [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 72.880 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 9.82% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 8.05%, with a net profit of 2.434 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 64.49% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Conditions - The steel industry faced a decline in both production and sales in 2024, with output and sales volumes of 51.41 million tons and 51.59 million tons, respectively, representing decreases of 1.0% and 0.6% year-over-year [2]. - The average selling price of steel products was 4,056 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down 6.9% year-over-year, indicating a significant drop in industry profitability [2]. - The average sales profit margin for key enterprises in the steel industry was 0.71% in 2024, down 0.63 percentage points year-over-year, highlighting the industry's challenging conditions [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to undergo supply-side optimization, with government efforts to control production and prevent excessive competition, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits [3]. - Predictions for 2025 suggest that global iron ore production capacity will continue to expand, potentially leading to a decrease in iron ore prices and further recovery in steel industry profits [3]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.43, 0.56, and 0.65 yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment for 2025-2026 due to lower steel price expectations [4].