Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The market performance for the steel sector showed a 0.20% increase, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products experiencing slight declines [2][10] - Supply conditions indicate a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 86.6%, with an increase of 1.10 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - Demand for the five major steel products rose to 888.0 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 19.49 million tons, or 2.24% [2][34] - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 23.33 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 1.65% [2][40] - The average price index for common steel increased to 3450.8 CNY/ton, with a slight week-on-week rise of 2.86 CNY/ton [2][47] Supply Summary - As of March 27, the average daily pig iron output was 2.3109 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 2.94 million tons [2][25] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces reached 58.9%, up by 2.30 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The total production of the five major steel products was 743.9 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.21 million tons week-on-week [2][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products reached 888.0 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 19.49 million tons [2][34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, reflecting a minor increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [2][34] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 208.8 million square meters, up by 39.2 million square meters week-on-week [34] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products stood at 1387.7 million tons, down by 23.33 million tons week-on-week [2][40] - Factory inventory for the five major steel products was 510.2 million tons, a decrease of 25.06 million tons week-on-week [2][40] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for common steel was 3450.8 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 3.14% [2][47] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 55 CNY/ton, down by 4.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][54] - The average cost of pig iron was 2369 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 11.0 CNY/ton [2][54] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 776 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0 CNY/ton [2][70] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1720 CNY/ton, up by 120.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][70] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke remained stable at 1715 CNY/ton [2][70] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential growth [2][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is expected to see long - term improvement in supply - demand relations during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as the Iran situation and tightened iron ore procurement restrictions, strengthening the cost support for steel prices. With the long - term improvement in the supply - demand pattern, strengthened short - term cost support, and low sector valuation, the steel sector is expected to experience value restoration and has significant allocation value [3]. - Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, in an environment where PPI is at the bottom of the cycle, market liquidity is abundant, and risk premium is rising, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity from performance restoration and room for sector valuation increase from the improvement of the supply pattern. The industry still has medium - to long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Positive" rating for the industry is maintained [3]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector rose 0.20% this week, outperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 index fell 1.41% to 4502.57. The top three sectors in terms of gains were basic chemicals (3.31%), non - ferrous metals (2.60%), and comprehensive (2.41%) [10]. - Among the sub - sectors, the special steel sector fell 0.53%, the long - product sector fell 0.24%, the plate sector fell 1.02%, the iron ore sector rose 7.48%, the steel consumables sector fell 0.31%, and the trading and distribution sector rose 1.37% [12][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains were Dazhong Mining (23.30%), Tunan Co., Ltd. (7.17%), and ST Hukel (4.18%) [15] 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of March 27, the daily average hot metal output was 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons (1.29%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.19% [25]. - As of March 27, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 86.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.10 percentage points [25]. - As of March 27, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 58.9%, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 percentage points [25]. - As of March 27, the output of the five major steel products was 743.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons (0.03%) [25] Demand - As of March 27, the consumption of the five major steel products was 888.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.49 million tons (2.24%) [34]. - As of March 27, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 9.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 million tons (0.14%) [34]. - As of March 22, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.088 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.392 million square meters [34]. - As of March 29, the net financing of local government special bonds was 2.138 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [34] Inventory - As of March 27, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 13.877 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2333 million tons (1.65%) and a year - on - year increase of 10.69% [40]. - As of March 27, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 5.102 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2506 million tons (4.68%) and a year - on - year increase of 5.37% [40] Steel Prices - As of March 27, the general index of ordinary steel was 3450.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.86 yuan/ton (0.08%) and a year - on - year decrease of 3.14% [47]. - As of March 27, the general index of special steel was 6632.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.22 yuan/ton (0.15%) and a year - on - year decrease of 1.02% [47] Steel Mill Profits - As of March 27, the national average hot metal cost was 2369 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.0 yuan/ton [54]. - As of March 27, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.0 yuan/ton (1.16%) [54]. - As of March 27, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 55 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton (6.78%) [54]. - As of March 27, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points [54] Futures - Spot Basis - As of March 27, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.0 yuan/ton [62]. - As of March 27, the spot basis of rebar was 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.0 yuan/ton [62]. - As of March 27, the spot basis of coke was - 115 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.5 yuan/ton [62]. - As of March 27, the spot basis of coking coal was 29.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 41.0 yuan/ton [62]. - As of March 27, the spot basis of iron ore was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.5 yuan/ton [62] Raw Materials: Price and Profit - As of March 20, the spot price index of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 776 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.0 yuan/ton [70]. - As of March 27, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120.0 yuan/ton [70]. - As of March 27, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1715 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - As of March 27, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.0 yuan/ton [70]. - As of March 27, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 13.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 yuan/ton [70] 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profit attributable to shareholders, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed companies such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Valin Steel Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. from 2024 to 2027 [71] Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. announced that several specific shareholders plan to reduce their shareholdings through centralized competitive bidding [72]. - Fangda Special Steel Co., Ltd. released its 2025 annual report, showing steel production, operating income, net profit, total assets, and net assets [73]. - Hainan Mining Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase and cancel some restricted stocks of the 2024 restricted stock incentive plan and adjust the repurchase price [73][74]. - Beijing Shougang Co., Ltd. announced the implementation results and share changes of its share repurchase [75] 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will focus on expanding domestic demand, investing in people, and opening up and sharing, which is expected to boost steel demand and benefit steel prices [76]. - 14 provinces have announced 172 key steel industry projects, which boosts demand expectations and is beneficial to steel prices [76]. - The steel inventory has continued to decline, and the apparent demand has increased month - on - month, which supports steel prices [76]. - The steel industry reported a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February, which reflects weak demand and poor profitability, suppressing market confidence and having a negative impact on steel prices [76]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several companies within the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to prolong, leading to a strong price trend in the steel market. The raw material prices are likely to fluctuate due to the conflict, with potential supply constraints affecting mining operations [9][31]. - Steel production remains stable, with a notable decrease in total inventory, indicating a healthy demand-supply balance. The report anticipates that carbon reduction requirements will impose constraints on steel supply, which may lead to a recovery in steel company profits [9][31]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of March 27, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar is 3200 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products show mixed price movements, with cold-rolled steel increasing by 10 CNY/ton to 3710 CNY/ton [14][15]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices are at 1120 USD/ton, down 2 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices are relatively stable with slight increases in some categories [26][28]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices remain stable, while imported iron ore prices have seen slight declines. The report notes a decrease in scrap steel prices to 2150 CNY/ton [31][36]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies, with several firms such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel receiving "Buy" recommendations based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry, indicating an improvement in supply and demand during the peak season, leading to a slight recovery in industry profitability [2][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with pig iron production rising above 2.3 million tons and consumption of the five major steel products reaching 8.8797 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 194,900 tons. This improvement in supply and demand has led to a rebound in steel prices and a slight expansion in corporate profitability. However, the overall demand recovery remains slow, resulting in inventory levels still under pressure compared to the same period last year, leading to cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the upstream raw material-related stocks have performed relatively stable, while the prices of major steel products have shown slight fluctuations. The steel industry is currently in a phase of stable supply and demand, with a potential for recovery in industry prosperity as policies on both supply and demand sides are implemented [4][5]. Industry Data Tracking Production Data - As of March 27, the total production of the five major steel products was 8.3958 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.24 million tons. The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3109 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 29,400 tons. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity was 86.63%, and the operating rate was 81.03% [10][21]. Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.8797 million tons, with week-on-week increases in rebar (+172,800 tons), wire rod (+73,000 tons), and hot-rolled products (+31,200 tons). However, cold-rolled and medium-thick plates saw decreases of 34,000 tons and 48,100 tons, respectively [10][21]. Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory was 18.9784 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 483,900 tons. Social inventory accounted for 13.8769 million tons, down 23.33% week-on-week, while steel mill inventory was 5.1015 million tons, down 25.06% week-on-week [10][21]. Profitability - As of March 27, the profitability of various steel products was as follows: high furnace rebar (55 CNY/ton), building steel (electric furnace, -91 CNY/ton), hot-rolled sheets (16 CNY/ton), and cold-rolled sheets (-139 CNY/ton). Approximately 43.29% of the sampled steel enterprises were profitable [10][21].

Group 1 - The central enterprise reform ETF Huaxia (512950) opened at a decline of 0.20%, priced at 1.500 yuan [1][2] - Major stocks in the ETF include Hikvision, which fell by 0.16%, China Merchants Bank down by 0.28%, and SMIC down by 0.44%. Conversely, Guodian NARI rose by 0.62% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index return, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. The fund manager is Rong Ying [2] Group 2 - Since its establishment on October 19, 2018, the ETF has achieved a return of 54.84%, while the return over the past month has been -4.37% [2] - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]

Group 1 - The central enterprise ETF Yinhua (159959) opened with a slight increase of 0.06%, priced at 1.620 yuan [1][2] - Major holdings in the ETF include Hikvision, which fell by 0.16%, China Merchants Bank down by 0.28%, and SMIC down by 0.44%. Conversely, Guodian NARI rose by 0.62% [1][2] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index return, managed by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. The fund manager is Zhou Dapeng [1][2] Group 2 - Since its establishment on October 22, 2018, the ETF has achieved a return of 61.96%, while its return over the past month has been -4.32% [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant volatility in the sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, impacting market performance and pricing [4][5] - The precious metals sector is expected to experience price fluctuations in the short term, with a long-term upward trend anticipated due to structural changes in monetary policy and increased central bank gold purchases [4][23] - Industrial metals are projected to see a price increase driven by stable demand from infrastructure investments and AI data centers, despite short-term pressures from geopolitical tensions [4][35] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.19%. The non-ferrous metals index fell by 11.82%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 9.63 percentage points [4][5] - Precious metals saw a decline of 10.73%, aluminum dropped by 15.67%, and copper fell by 11.72% week-on-week [9] Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals prices decreased significantly, with LME copper down by 6.69% and COMEX gold down by 10.57% [4][15] - Lithium prices also saw a decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 6.65% [19] Precious Metals - The report notes that the gold price is expected to rise in the long term due to low current gold reserves in China and ongoing central bank purchases [4][23] - The gold-silver ratio is currently at a high level, indicating potential for convergence as demand recovers [4][24] Industrial Metals - Copper demand is recovering quickly after price declines, with significant investments expected in the electric grid and AI sectors [4][35] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with production capacity constraints expected to drive prices higher [4][50] Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, Yunnan Tin, and China Aluminum [20][22]

Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an investment rating of "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a decline of 10.03% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down 9.18% and iron ore down 10.96% [10][12] - Supply conditions show an increase in high furnace capacity utilization to 85.5%, while electric furnace utilization rose to 56.6% [24] - Demand for the five major steel products increased to 868.5 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 8.82% [34] - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 12.26 million tons week-on-week, while factory inventory fell by 16.40 million tons [41] - The average price index for common steel is 3448.0 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase, while special steel is at 6622.7 yuan/ton [47] - Profit margins for rebar steel decreased to 59 yuan/ton, while electric furnace profit margins for construction steel fell to -86 yuan/ton [55] Supply Summary - As of March 20, the average daily pig iron production was 2.2815 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.95% [24] - The total production of the five major steel products reached 744.1 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 2.41% [24] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products reached 868.5 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70.40 million tons [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, showing a slight decline [34] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products stood at 14.11 million tons, down 0.86% week-on-week [41] - Factory inventory of the five major steel products was 5.352 million tons, also down 2.97% week-on-week [41] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index increased by 2.56 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the special steel price index rose by 5.93 yuan/ton [47] - The profit for rebar steel decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the electric furnace profit for construction steel decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton [55] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 776 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0 yuan/ton [73] - The price for coking coal at the port was 1600 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.0 yuan/ton [73] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential growth [74]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a decline of 10.03% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down 9.18% and iron ore down 10.96% [10][12] - Supply conditions show an increase in high furnace capacity utilization to 85.5%, while electric furnace utilization rose to 56.6% [24] - Demand for the five major steel products increased to 868.5 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 8.82% [34] - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 0.86% week-on-week, while factory inventory fell by 2.97% [41] - The average price index for common steel is 3448.0 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [47] - The report anticipates a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics, supported by cost factors and low valuations in the steel sector [3] Supply Summary - As of March 20, the average daily pig iron production was 2.2815 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.95% [24] - High furnace capacity utilization increased by 2.61 percentage points to 85.5% [24] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rose by 6.13 percentage points to 56.6% [24] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 7.441 million tons, up 2.41% week-on-week [24] Demand Summary - Consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.685 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8.82% [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, showing a slight decline of 3.17% [34] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 1.696 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week rise [34] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products was 14.11 million tons, down 0.86% week-on-week [41] - Factory inventory of the five major steel products was 5.352 million tons, down 2.97% week-on-week [41] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index is 3448.0 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.78% [47] - The special steel price index is 6622.7 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.30% [47] - The profit for rebar production was 59 yuan/ton, down 7.81% week-on-week [55] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -86 yuan/ton, down 10.26% week-on-week [55] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 776 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0 yuan [73] - The price of coking coal at the port was 1600 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan week-on-week [73] - The price of first-grade metallurgical coke remained stable at 1715 yuan/ton [73] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential for growth [74]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Jiuli Special Materials, and others [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in iron water production, with daily average production increasing by 70,000 tons to 2.282 million tons, and steel production continuing to grow, particularly in rebar [12][17]. - Total steel inventory has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 1.5%, indicating a tightening supply situation [23][25]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has improved on a month-on-month basis, with rebar demand showing signs of recovery [37][47]. - Iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have slightly decreased [46][55]. - The current industry environment is expected to improve due to ongoing "anti-involution" policies, which may lead to a stronger steel price outlook [68]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Steel Index closed at 1,919.67 points, down 10.03%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 7.84 percentage points, ranking 29th among 30 CITIC primary sectors [1][87]. Supply Analysis - The average capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills is 85.6%, up 2.7 percentage points week-on-week, while daily average iron water production has increased [17][12]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of five major steel products is 14.11 million tons, down 0.9% week-on-week, while steel mill inventories decreased by 3.0% [25][23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.685 million tons, up 8.8% week-on-week, with rebar consumption at 2.081 million tons, up 17.7% [47][37]. Raw Material Analysis - The iron ore price index for 62% Fe is at $109.6 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [55][46]. Price and Profit Analysis - The Myspic comprehensive steel price index is at 122.3, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [69][68].