顾家家居(603816)：25Q1业绩较优 零售转型思路明确

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 3.81%, 29.38%, and 26.92% year-on-year to 18.48 billion, 1.417 billion, and 1.301 billion yuan respectively, with Q4 2024 revenue down 7.8% to 4.68 billion yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 12.9%, 23.5%, and 22.2% year-on-year to 4.91 billion, 520 million, and 460 million yuan respectively [1] - The company declared a cash dividend of 1.38 yuan per share [1] Operational Analysis - The company experienced steady growth in exports, with 2024 export revenue increasing by 11.3% year-on-year to 8.367 billion yuan, while domestic sales faced challenges with a 14.4% decline [2] - Q4 2024 saw some improvement in domestic orders due to government subsidy policies, although shipment delays continued to pressure financial results [2] - Q1 2025 is expected to show a recovery in domestic sales growth, while exports are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth despite limited impacts from tariffs [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The decline in overall profit for 2024 was primarily due to a 213 million yuan impairment on the Hongxing 03 bond and a 50 million yuan goodwill impairment, along with the divestment of certain subsidiaries [3] - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points to 32.72% and 32.40% respectively, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin customized furniture in domestic sales and increased low-margin export revenue [3] - The company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs showed slight increases in 2024, with Q1 2025 reflecting mixed changes across these categories [3] Retail Transformation and Export Strategy - The company is actively pursuing a retail transformation, shifting from a manufacturing and wholesale model to a retail-oriented operation, which is expected to support domestic sales growth [4] - In response to U.S.-China trade tensions, the company is focusing on expanding non-U.S. market clients and enhancing its own brand presence abroad, while also accelerating new overseas capacity development [4] - The overall strategy for both domestic and international sales is clear, with expectations for continued growth [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.28, 2.48, and 2.71 yuan respectively, with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [5]