Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 智通财经网·2025-04-29 07:08Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the global oil market is in a rare state, with futures prices showing recent supply tightness while signaling a future "meaningful surplus" [1] - The Brent crude oil futures curve is currently unusual, with the first nine contracts sloping downwards and then upwards, a pattern with almost no historical precedent [1] - In April, Brent crude oil prices fell by 12% due to the impact of the US-led trade war, OPEC+'s faster-than-expected supply increase, and rising surplus expectations [3] Group 2 - The current spot premium in Brent crude prices indicates a bullish sentiment, as traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate oil, but this is expected to shift to a futures premium by 2026 [3] - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will drop to a low of $60 per barrel later this year, with current forecasts maintaining June futures at $65.03 per barrel [3] - Trade tariffs are expected to be a significant obstacle to oil demand, with a projected deficit in oil supply-demand balance in Q3, followed by a substantial surplus thereafter [3]