Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys raised the firm’s price target on Nasdaq (NDAQ) to $116 from $113 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While durable underlying secular tailwinds persist, the firm sees cyclical tailwinds set to accelerate revenue growth across the Solutions business through 2026-27, the analyst tells investors. Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See today’s best-performing stocks on TipRanks >> Rea ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot sales in 2026, expecting a 133% increase this year to 28,000 units, doubling the previous estimate of 14,000 units [1] - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to grow exponentially, from approximately 12,000 units in 2024 to 262,000 units by 2030, and reaching 2.6 million units by 2035 [1] Industry Growth and Cost Reduction - The production costs for robots are expected to decline, lowering the purchase threshold; raw material costs for robot production in China are anticipated to decrease by 16% this year [3] - By 2035, global component prices are expected to drop by about 70%, leading to significant price reductions for humanoid robots [3] - Prices for humanoid robots in middle and low-income countries, including China, are projected to fall from $50,000 in 2024 to approximately $21,000 by 2050 [3] Market Penetration and Application - By 2036, the number of humanoid robots in use globally is expected to reach 25.4 million, accounting for 2% of the overall robot market, with this share increasing to 13% by 2040 and 42% by 2044 [3] - By 2050, the global deployment of humanoid robots may exceed 1 billion units, with over half of these applications in middle and high-income countries [3] China's Dominance in Humanoid Robotics - China is currently the largest market for humanoid robot applications, with over 80% of the global deployment expected by 2025 [3] - The domestic humanoid robot industry has begun extensive market promotion, with several manufacturers partnering with the CCTV Spring Festival Gala to showcase their products [4][5] Investment and Industry Trends - The increasing presence of robot manufacturers at the Spring Festival Gala reflects three major industry trends: focus on consumer-level applications, reaching the C-end market, and transitioning from experimental technology to commercial deployment [7] - A report by IDC indicates that the humanoid robot market will experience explosive growth in 2025, with an estimated shipment of 18,000 units and sales of approximately $440 million, marking a year-on-year increase of about 508% [7] Government Support and Competitive Landscape - Since 2015, the Chinese government has prioritized robotics as a key industry, leading to rapid development and the establishment of over 150 humanoid robot companies [8] - The government has implemented policies to support the robotics industry, aiming for China to achieve international leadership in robotics by 2035 [8] - Elon Musk has acknowledged that China's humanoid robot sector poses the most significant competition for Tesla, highlighting China's manufacturing capabilities and advancements in AI technology [9]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot sales in 2026, expecting a 133% increase this year to 28,000 units, doubling the previous estimate of 14,000 units [1] - The humanoid robot sales in China are projected to grow exponentially, from approximately 12,000 units in 2024 to 262,000 units by 2030, and reaching 2.6 million units by 2035 [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The production cost of robots is expected to decline, lowering the purchase threshold for humanoid robots, with raw material costs in China projected to decrease by 16% this year [3] - By 2035, global prices for related components are expected to drop by about 70%, leading to significant price reductions for humanoid robots [3] - The average price of humanoid robots in middle and low-income countries, including China, is expected to fall from $50,000 in 2024 to approximately $21,000 by 2050 [3] - In developed countries like the U.S., the average price is projected to decrease from $200,000 to $75,000 in the same timeframe [3] - By 2036, the number of humanoid robots in use globally is expected to reach 25.4 million, accounting for 2% of the overall robot market, with this share increasing to 13% by 2040 and 42% by 2044 [3] Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The humanoid robot industry in China is entering a phase of market promotion, with several manufacturers collaborating with the CCTV Spring Festival Gala to showcase their products [4][5] - The participation of multiple robot manufacturers in the Spring Festival Gala reflects three key industry trends: focus on consumer-level applications, reaching the C-end market, and transitioning from experimental technology to commercial deployment [7] - A report by IDC indicates that the humanoid robot market will experience explosive growth in 2025, with an estimated shipment of 18,000 units and sales revenue of approximately $440 million, marking a year-on-year increase of about 508% [7] - Chinese manufacturers are leading the market, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushutech being significant players in terms of shipment volume [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Since 2015, when China prioritized robotics as one of its top ten key industries, the sector has seen rapid development, with over 150 humanoid robot companies currently operating [8] - Government support has been crucial, with policies aimed at enhancing R&D and promoting the integration of robots into economic and social frameworks [8] - China possesses unique advantages in manufacturing application scenarios and data collection capabilities, which are critical for the development of embodied intelligence [9] - Elon Musk has acknowledged that China's humanoid robot sector represents the most formidable competition for Tesla, highlighting China's strengths in large-scale manufacturing and AI technology [9]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's strategic shift towards wealth and asset management has significantly reduced its reliance on the volatile nature of dealmaking and trading, with the wealth and asset management segments contributing 54% to total net revenues in 2025, up from 26% in 2010 [1][10] Wealth and Asset Management Growth - The wealth and asset management sectors are characterized by recurring fee streams, which provide more stability compared to transaction-heavy investment banking [2] - By the end of 2025, total client assets in Wealth and Investment Management reached $9.3 trillion, supported by $356 billion in net new assets, moving closer to the company's $10 trillion target [4][10] Strategic Acquisitions - Morgan Stanley has enhanced its market position through strategic acquisitions, including E*TRADE, Eaton Vance, Shareworks (formerly Solium), and EquityZen, which have broadened distribution and deepened client engagement [3][10] Peer Comparison - In comparison, JPMorgan's Asset & Wealth Management segment reported net revenues of $6.5 billion in Q4 2025, with assets under management reaching $4.8 trillion [6] - Goldman Sachs' Asset & Wealth Management division generated net revenues of $4.72 billion in Q4 2025, with assets under supervision totaling $3.61 trillion [7] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Morgan Stanley's shares have appreciated by 28% over the past six months, and the company trades at a price-to-tangible book ratio of 3.69, above the industry average of 3.11 [8][11] - Earnings estimates for 2026 suggest an 8.4% year-over-year increase, with 2027 earnings expected to grow by 7.1% [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Investment banks are regaining prominence as deal-making and IPO activities increase, with Morgan Stanley and Jefferies Financial Group presenting different investment opportunities [2][3]. Morgan Stanley - Morgan Stanley's investment banking (IB) fees increased by 23% in 2025 and 35% in 2024, following a decline in 2023 and 2022, indicating a strong recovery in the IB sector [3][9]. - The company has a robust trading business that has performed well due to market volatility and client activity, which is expected to continue growing [4]. - A partnership with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has strengthened Morgan Stanley's position in Japan, with Asia region revenues rising 23% year-over-year to $9.42 billion in 2025 [5]. - Morgan Stanley has diversified its revenue streams, with wealth and asset management contributing nearly 54% to total net revenues in 2025, up from 26% in 2010 [6]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth of 6% and 4.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with earnings expected to grow by 8.4% and 7.1% in the same years [18]. Jefferies Financial Group - Jefferies' total IB fees rose by 10% in fiscal 2025 and 52% in fiscal 2024, indicating a recovery after previous declines [7]. - The company is benefiting from strategic partnerships, including a significant stake from Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, which is expected to increase to 20% [9][10]. - Jefferies' revenue growth estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 are 16.5% and 16.3%, respectively, with earnings expected to jump by 50.3% and 38.1% [20]. Comparative Analysis - Morgan Stanley shares have increased by 31.8% over the past year, while Jefferies shares have decreased by 20.4%, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards Morgan Stanley [11][14]. - In terms of valuation, Jefferies is trading at a forward P/E of 13.03X, while Morgan Stanley's forward P/E is 16.46X, suggesting Jefferies is less expensive [14][16]. - Morgan Stanley's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.92%, significantly higher than Jefferies' 7.27%, reflecting more efficient use of shareholder funds [16]. - Morgan Stanley's diversified revenue model and strong trading franchise position it as a more resilient investment compared to Jefferies, which is primarily focused on investment banking [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Partners Group have collaborated to launch a new offering of separately managed accounts focused on alternative investments, providing advisors with a diversified option for their clients [1] Group 1: New Offering Details - The new separately managed accounts are designed around specific investment goals and include exposure to seven underlying private funds [1] - The offering encompasses various asset classes, including private equity, private credit, and real assets, catering to the growing demand for alternative investments [1]

Core Insights - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are the leading financial advisers in the global retail M&A sector for 2025, with JPMorgan leading in deal value and Morgan Stanley in deal count [1][2] Deal Value Summary - JPMorgan advised on retail M&A transactions worth $44.5 billion in 2025, ranking first in total deal value [1] - Morgan Stanley followed in second place with $37.9 billion in advised retail deals, benefiting from several significant transactions [2] - Goldman Sachs ranked third with $33.2 billion, Citi fourth with $29.2 billion, and UBS fifth with $28.4 billion [3] Deal Count Summary - Morgan Stanley recorded the highest number of mandates in the retail sector, working on 11 announced deals [1] - UBS also completed 11 transactions, sharing the upper ranks with Morgan Stanley [3] - Rothschild & Co advised on 11 deals, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs each worked on nine deals in the retail segment [3]

Core Viewpoint - GitLab Inc. (NASDAQ:GTLB) is facing downgrades from multiple financial institutions due to concerns over growth potential and competition, particularly from AI startups, despite its position in the software industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Downgrades and Price Objectives - Morgan Stanley downgraded GitLab from Overweight to Equal Weight, reducing its price target from $55 to $42, citing exaggerated concerns about competition and a transition year ahead [2]. - Barclays also downgraded GitLab from Equal Weight to Underweight, lowering its price target from $42 to $34, indicating expectations of slowed growth despite solid IT spending and low valuations [3]. Group 2: Market and Competitive Landscape - The company operates an advanced DevSecOps platform for software innovation, but there are concerns that AI stocks may offer better investment opportunities with less downside risk [4]. - The changing market dynamics and frequent management changes are complicating the establishment of GitLab's stock value [3].

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum - Japan Rate Reset: Implications Across Macro Markets Company/Industry Involved - **Company**: Morgan Stanley - **Industry**: Global Macro Markets, with a focus on Japan's economic outlook and monetary policy Key Points and Arguments Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise the policy rate in **June 2026**, with upward revisions already made as of **December 2026** [6][60] - Fiscal fundamentals in Japan are solid, but there is concern over the lack of credible and timely official fiscal estimates [60] - Real GDP growth forecasts for fiscal 2025 are revised to **+0.8% to +0.9%**, and for fiscal 2026 to **+0.8% to +1.0%** [6] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The BoJ is likely to slow its JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) reduction pace in **June 2026** [10][60] - There is expected upward pressure on term premiums in Japan due to fiscal policy concerns and the BoJ potentially falling behind the curve [60] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading at a premium to fair value, influenced by Japan's fiscal and inflation outlook [19][60] Equities and Earnings - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish stance on the Japan banking sector, with expectations of strong earnings per share (EPS) revisions [60] - The consensus 12-month forward P/E target for Japan is forecasted at **15.0x** [41][60] - Small-cap stocks have recently underperformed, but resilient fundamentals are still present [60] Asset Allocation Strategy - Morgan Stanley prefers global equities over core fixed income, favoring the US and Japan over Europe and emerging markets [46][60] - The underweight in core fixed income is primarily through credit allocation rather than government bonds, as technicals around issuance are weaker in corporate credit [60] European Market Insights - Upcoming inflation data in Europe may lead to two **25 basis point cuts** by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2026 [24][60] - The issuance of European government bonds has been well absorbed, with improving syndicate statistics [32][60] Risk Premium and Market Dynamics - Changes in risk premium are expected to drive the next leg of USD movements, with a more USD-negative risk premium anticipated [19][60] - The correlation between the Japanese yen and the TOPIX index is becoming less negative, indicating a complex relationship between currency strength and stock performance [50][60] Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data and its implications for monetary policy and market dynamics [60] - Analysts express caution regarding the potential for large market moves due to shifts in risk premiums and fiscal confidence in Japan [60]

Group 1: Core Insights - JPMorgan and Houlihan Lokey are the leading financial advisers for M&A in the TMT sector for 2025, with JPMorgan leading in deal value and Houlihan Lokey in deal volume [1][4] - JPMorgan advised on transactions totaling $435.5 billion, while Houlihan Lokey participated in 94 deals, just short of 100 [1][5] - Morgan Stanley ranks third in deal value with $253.4 billion, followed closely by Goldman Sachs at $237.2 billion and Allen & Company at $235.6 billion [2] Group 2: Transaction Volume - In terms of transaction volume, Morgan Stanley also holds the third position with 59 deals, followed by Goldman Sachs with 49 and Evercore with 43 [3] - JPMorgan advised on 32 billion-dollar deals, including seven mega deals valued over $10 billion, contributing significantly to its lead in deal value [5] - Houlihan Lokey's deal volume was significantly higher than JPMorgan's, which had 65 deals, placing it second in volume [5] Group 3: Data Source and Methodology - GlobalData's league tables are based on real-time tracking of various reliable sources, including company and advisory firm websites [5][6] - A dedicated team of analysts monitors these sources to gather detailed information on each deal, including adviser names [5]