央视网消息：中国二季度经济数据公布后，陆续有十多家外资金融机构或者国际投行上调了对中国经济增长的预测，其中不少在半年内进 行了连续调升。 摩根士丹利在其年中展望报告中，将2025年中国经济增速预期上调0.3个百分点，对明后两年的经济增速预期也分别上调0.2个百分点。大 华银行上调0.3个百分点，野村上调0.5个百分点，高盛上调0.6个百分点。 大华银行集团环球经济与市场研究部研究主管 全德健：首先主要源于工业生产部门表现强劲，包含电力、建筑和制造业等，该领域已连 续15个月保持增长，为整体经济活动提供支撑。在零售端，推动家电以旧换新计划和消费补贴政策，有效提振了家电、手机等高科技设备和汽 车等零售领域。 在国际贸易方面，外资金融机构认为，国内货物贸易资金净流入维持高位，出口数据表现亮眼。 安联投资亚太区高级经济学家 汤继成：除美国以外的其他经济体对中国出口需求保持强劲，既支撑了中国的出口规模，也助力上半年实 现了贸易顺差。 政策的持续发力也是吸引外资上调预期的关键因素。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家 邢自强：从去年9月份以来，我们政策是一以贯之，以支持消费内需、提振金融市场信心为重心，今年上半 年有消费品的刺激 ...

July 21, 2025 02:55 PM GMT Global EM Strategist Trend = Friend The USD rebound in July has been modest as policy uncertainty has offset resilient macro data. USD positioning is now neutral. We expect EM local markets to regain their footing as the medium-term trend of duration and FX gains reasserts itself. Key Takeaways The 2025 Extel Global Fixed Income Poll is now open and your participation matters a great deal to us. If you have found our Global FX and EM research insightful and helpful, we would great ...

美资公司首次试水熊猫债，摩根士丹利20亿元人民币债已定价。（彭博） ...

【导读】美国总统特朗普造访美联储！美联储史上首次召开银行资本监管公开会议 美东时间7月24日周四，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指跌超300点，纳指与标普500指数再创新高。特朗普造访美联储，就利率问题展开讨论。美联储召开历史 上首次银行资本监管公开会议。 纳指、标普500指数再创新高 截至收盘，道指跌316.38点，跌幅为0.70%，报44693.91点；纳指涨37.94点，涨幅为0.18%，报21057.96点；标普500指数涨4.44点，涨幅为0.07%，报 6363.35点。 美国总统特朗普造访美联储，美国《纽约时报》评论称，特朗普此行标志他对美联储施压行动升级。特朗普表示，跟美联储主席鲍威尔讨论了利率问题， 称"这次谈话很有成效"。 特朗普表示，希望鲍威尔能降低利率，如果把利率降低三个百分点至一个百分点，美国就能省下一万多亿美元。他将观察委员会如何制定利率规则。特朗 普就解雇美联储主席鲍威尔一事表示，这将是一个大动作。此外，特朗普提及翻修工程数据。鲍威尔表示，预计翻修工程将会在2027年完成。特朗普称， 他通常会解雇超出预算的项目经理。 美国财长贝森特称，可能会在今年12月或明年1月宣布新一任美联储主席提名人 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Consumer Sector** and its performance as indicated by the **Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score** compared to **MSCI China** [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Activity Decline**: Consumer activity weakened in June 2025, as evidenced by a decline in the Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score [6][7]. - **Contributing Factors**: The decline in consumer activity is attributed to: - Early promotions in May - Temporary suspension of subsidies - Tighter government control on entertainment [7]. - **Mixed Signals**: While commodity retail sales and catering softened, there were slight improvements in household loans, air passenger travel, and passenger car sales [7]. - **Future Outlook**: The payback of export front-loading and delayed new stimulus measures may pressure consumer sentiment in the upcoming months [7]. - **Government Actions**: The impact of recent government efforts to control price wars among e-commerce platforms remains uncertain [7]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report includes a detailed analysis of five key factors influencing consumer activity: 1. Year-over-year change in household loans 2. Year-over-year change in retail sales in catering 3. Year-over-year change in retail sales in commodities (excluding autos) 4. Year-over-year change in passenger car retail sales (3-month moving average) 5. Year-over-year change in air passenger traffic (3-month moving average) [2][6]. This comprehensive analysis provides a nuanced view of the current state of the consumer sector in China, highlighting both challenges and areas of slight improvement.

摩根士丹利银行业分析师肯尼指出，监管提案将加快落地，未来资本要求或趋于宽松。 AI首度写入监管议程 监管重心转向支持增长 此次会议核心讨论议题包括：压力测试机制、系统重要性附加资本的计算方法、巴塞尔协议终局实施路 径以及补充杠杆率（eSLR）的改革可能。多位与会银行高管和监管代表对现行规则提出批评，指出 其"过于复杂、成本高企且过度约束"。肯尼对第一财经表示："无一发言者主张提高资本水平。相反， 多方对简化监管表达了一致诉求。" 根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至2025年一季度，美国大型银行共计持有1960亿美元超额资本，占比达 16%。在银行体系普遍资本充足的背景下，复杂和重叠的资本要求被认为已对信贷投放、金融创新与市 场竞争构成制约。与会讨论显示，目前存在"重复计提"问题，例如交易账簿规则（FRTB）与全球市场 冲击测试（GMS）指标在风险加权计算上存在重合，压力资本缓冲（SCB）中的分红附加也与其他资 本要求结构性重叠。 围绕GSIB附加资本机制，不少与会者建议调整"方法二"中的计算系数，参照美国名义GDP的增长对短 期批发融资等关键指标设限，也有建议回归国际较为通行的"方法一"加逆周期缓冲机制的计算路径。肯 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley is under investigation by FINRA for customer identity verification issues related to money laundering risks, highlighting the need for advanced AI models in customer screening and risk management [1][2] - The investigation focuses on customer and risk rating reports from October 2021 to September 2024, with potential fines due to shortcomings in anti-money laundering measures [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has invested significantly in anti-money laundering projects and customer verification processes, which have positively impacted its core business [1] Group 2 - FINRA has requested information from Morgan Stanley's wealth management and trading departments, indicating ongoing scrutiny of customer risk rating deficiencies [2] - The traditional screening systems have shown vulnerabilities, prompting the need for AI-driven solutions to enhance compliance and reduce human error in transaction monitoring [2] - Following the rise of ChatGPT, Wall Street firms are investing heavily in developing proprietary AI assistants to improve operational efficiency and risk analysis [2] Group 3 - A Bank of America survey indicates that AI-related software spending is a top priority for companies, with expectations for AI spending to reach 27.7% of software budgets by mid-2025, increasing to 31.6% by 2026 [3] - Anthropic, a competitor to OpenAI, reported an annual revenue of approximately $3 billion, demonstrating strong demand for generative AI applications in the business sector [3] - The surge in Anthropic's revenue is attributed to the sale of customized AI models to enhance operational efficiency within enterprises, indicating a significant growth trend in enterprise-level AI applications [3]

July 22, 2025 10:00 PM GMT India Economics and Strategy | Asia Pacific Building Blocks of India's Prosperity If states don't implement policies that enhance growth and protect macro stability, India will struggle to achieve its potential outcomes. Without understanding India's states, investors can hardly be confident about India's macro story. Why investors cannot afford to miss this report: In Why This Is India's Decade, we opined that India will drive a fifth of global growth in the coming decade and bec ...

July 22, 2025 10:21 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | North America July 22: Drifting Lower US rates rally and USD weakens; JGBs steepen after elections; AxJ yields steepen on domestic policy developments; upside surprise in UK public borrowing; European duration extends rally; NBH maintains policy rate and Hungary curve flattens; DXY at 97.38 (-0.5%); US 10y at 4.344% (-3.4bp). The 2025 Extel Global Fixed-Income Survey is open. If you enjoy our work, please rate us five stars in the following categories: Gl ...

July 22, 2025 06:35 PM GMT RESEARCH Commodities The Oil Manual – Chartbook: 200 Charts that Decode the Oil Market Source: Shutterstock Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certificati ...