Core Viewpoint - The report from Haitong International indicates that the potential implementation of pharmaceutical tariffs by the U.S. could impact large pharmaceutical companies, but the overall effect on China's pharmaceutical industry is limited due to the low import proportion from China and the long lead time for new capacity to come online [1][2][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Pharmaceutical Trade - In 2023, the proportion of U.S. imports from China in total pharmaceutical imports is only 1.5%, which is relatively low [2] - The U.S. has maintained a long-term trade surplus in pharmaceuticals with China, which has been expanding [2] - The potential for U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs to be implemented exists, as previous threats from Trump indicated a possible 25% tariff to encourage domestic production [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the Industry - The impact of tariffs on China's pharmaceutical industry is limited, suggesting a focus on domestic substitution, innovative drugs, and consumer demand sectors [2] - The tariffs may accelerate the process of domestic substitution in medical devices and other areas [2] - If tariffs are enacted, large pharmaceutical companies will be the most affected, but the transition of the supply chain back to the U.S. is complicated and costly [3] Group 3: U.S. Pharmaceutical Trade Deficit - The U.S. pharmaceutical trade deficit is projected to reach $118.6 billion in 2024, a 35% increase year-on-year [3] - Ireland, Germany, and Switzerland are the top three sources of pharmaceutical imports to the U.S., with Ireland being the largest due to favorable tax policies [3]
海通国际：医药关税影响有限 MNC或遭掣肘