新宝股份(002705)：海外需求旺盛带动外销增长 Q1利润表现亮眼

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 16.821 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.053 billion yuan, up 7.75% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.15%, with a net profit of 268 million yuan, up 11.07% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.834 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, and a net profit of 247 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 43.02% year-on-year [1] - The company declared a cash dividend of 4.50 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for 2024, with a payout ratio of 42.02% [1] Sales Performance - The company experienced a decline in domestic sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.42%, while external sales grew by 21.68% in 2024 [2] - In Q4 2024, domestic sales fell by 11.3%, while external sales increased by 14.1% [2] - For Q1 2025, domestic sales continued to decline by 4.94%, but external sales maintained a growth rate of 15.77% [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.63%, down 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 19.38%, a decline of 4.01 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 7.01%, slightly up by 0.03 percentage points [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 22.42%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 6.89%, up 1.35 percentage points [3] Expense Management - The company maintained good control over its expense ratios in 2024, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 3.6%, 4.94%, 3.94%, and -0.52% respectively [3] - In Q4 2024, these ratios were 4.2%, 4.27%, 5.16%, and -1.87%, showing a year-on-year decrease in sales and management expenses [3] - For Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 3.9%, 5.8%, 3.36%, and -0.56%, with financial expenses increasing due to reduced interest income and exchange gains [4] Investment Outlook - The increase in external orders is expected to drive total revenue growth, while domestic sales are anticipated to gradually recover from a low base [4] - The company has adjusted its forecast for external sales growth and gross margin due to uncertainties in trade with the U.S., projecting net profits of 1.21 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.51 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4]