ETO Markets市场洞察：黄金窄幅震荡待指引，全球贸易阴云笼罩经济前景

Group 1 - Spot gold continues to trade in a narrow range around $3314 per ounce, with a "V-shaped" reversal observed on Monday, where it dipped to $3268 before closing at $3343.91, marking a daily increase of 0.75% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors, including anticipation of the latest U.S. trade policy and a series of economic data releases that may serve as a litmus test for the effectiveness of the Trump administration's trade war [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.91 on Monday, marking a four-week low, with an April cumulative decline of 4.89%, the worst monthly performance since July of the previous year [3] Group 2 - A recent Reuters survey indicates that 61% of 167 economists believe there is a "high" risk of global economic recession in 2024, a significant increase from three months ago [4] - The aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to a loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets, resulting in a substantial evaporation of market capitalization across global stock markets [4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show positive job growth, but at a slower pace compared to March, raising further concerns about economic slowdown [4] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that interest rate cuts may be considered if economic growth risks escalate, but they prefer to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation and employment before making adjustments [5] - The gold market is showing signs of "exhaustion of selling momentum," suggesting limited downside risk, as Western investors have been notably absent in the previous gold price increase cycle [5] - Key economic data releases this week, including Q1 GDP and core PCE inflation, will be crucial for guiding global central bank policy shifts [5] Group 4 - Today's focus includes the release of March JOLTs job openings data and the second round of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, which may influence market expectations regarding the restoration of the global trade system [6] - Investors are advised to closely monitor these events for their potential impact on the dollar, gold, and risk assets [6] Group 5 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to find balance amid uncertainties in trade policy, dollar movements, and economic data, despite rising concerns over recession risks [7] - The weakening selling momentum in the gold market indicates limited downside potential, with investors urged to pay attention to upcoming employment, GDP, and inflation data for signals of Federal Reserve policy shifts [7]