Tariffs Are Impacting Intel in an Unexpected Way

Core Viewpoint - Intel is unlikely to benefit significantly from the current trade policies and economic uncertainty may negatively impact demand for its products, particularly in the PC and data center markets [1][2]. Financial Guidance - Intel's revenue guidance for Q2 is projected between $11.2 billion and $12.4 billion, a decrease from $12.7 billion in Q1, reflecting high uncertainty in demand [2]. Demand Shifts - There has been an unexpected shift in the laptop market towards older Intel products, with increased demand for Raptor Lake systems and decreased demand for newer Meteor Lake and Lunar Lake systems due to their higher price points [3][4]. Gross Margin Impact - The shift to older laptop CPUs is positively affecting gross margins as Raptor Lake chips are produced in-house on a mature process, while newer chips have higher production costs and are partially outsourced [4][5]. Production Capacity Constraints - Intel faces production capacity constraints for its Intel 7 process, limiting the ability to meet demand for Raptor Lake chips, which may persist in the foreseeable future [5]. Commercial vs Consumer Market - Newer chips are performing better in the commercial PC market due to the end of Windows 10 support, with expectations that this demand will eventually extend to the consumer market, although economic conditions remain uncertain [5]. Upcoming Product Launch - The launch of Panther Lake is on track, with plans to introduce some SKUs by the end of the year, utilizing the new Intel 18A process node, which is expected to enhance performance and efficiency [6][7]. Importance of Panther Lake - The success of Panther Lake is crucial for Intel's product turnaround and the success of its foundry business, with significant reliance on the Intel 18A process node amidst challenging economic conditions [8].