McDonald's Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is expected to report a decline in first-quarter 2025 earnings and revenues due to weak traffic and economic pressures on low-income consumers [2][4]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter EPS has decreased to $2.64, reflecting a 2.2% drop from the previous year's EPS of $2.70 [2]. - Revenue estimates for the quarter are set at $6.08 billion, indicating a 1.4% year-over-year decline [2]. - U.S. revenues are projected to decline by 0.9% to $2,486.3 million, while revenues from International Operated Markets are expected to decrease by 0.7% to $2,927.1 million [3]. Factors Influencing Performance - Weak traffic, particularly in the U.S. and large international markets, is anticipated to negatively impact revenues [2]. - Economic pressures on low-income consumers have suppressed spending, affecting traffic and average check sizes [2]. - Despite the challenges, strong digital adoption, innovative menu offerings, and strategic unit expansion are expected to support performance [4]. Operational Insights - The company is likely to see a 1% increase in U.S. same-store sales and a 0.9% increase in International Operated Markets comps [5]. - Persistent pressure from elevated commodity prices and wages may have negatively impacted the operating margin during the quarter [5]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a potential earnings beat for McDonald's, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6].