Intel: Good Quarter, Bad Vibes, Guidance Rattles Investors

Core Insights - Intel reported first-quarter financial results that exceeded expectations for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, but the positive sentiment was overshadowed by a cautious outlook for the second quarter, forecasting breakeven non-GAAP EPS [1][3][5] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS decreased by 28% year-over-year to $0.13, while revenue remained flat at $12.7 billion [3] - GAAP net loss widened to $(0.19) per share from $(0.09) in the same quarter last year [3] - Non-GAAP gross margins fell nearly six percentage points year-over-year to 39.2% due to ongoing cost issues and product mix [3] Segment Performance - Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue grew by 8% year-over-year, while Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue declined by 8% due to demand shifting towards older, lower-margin processors [4] - Intel Foundry Services (IFS) reported a significant operating loss of $2.3 billion for the quarter [4] Q2 Guidance - Intel projects Q2 revenue between $11.2 billion and $12.4 billion, indicating a sequential decline even at the higher end [5] - Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to decrease further to around 36.5%, with a forecast of $0.00 non-GAAP EPS suggesting no immediate improvement in profitability [5] Management Outlook - Management cited increased macroeconomic uncertainty, uncertain global trade policies, a product mix leaning towards lower-margin client chips, and ongoing start-up costs for the Intel 18A manufacturing process as reasons for the cautious outlook [6][7] Restructuring Efforts - Under CEO Tan's leadership, Intel is implementing a substantial operational restructuring, with potential layoffs exceeding 20% of the workforce aimed at reducing bureaucracy and focusing on engineering [8] - The gross capital expenditure target for 2025 has been decreased to $18 billion from $20 billion, reflecting improved utilization of existing assets [9] Market Reaction - Following the Q1 report and Q2 guidance, Intel's stock price experienced a sharp decline, erasing recent gains and highlighting a 35% decrease over the past year [10] - The consensus rating has shifted to "Reduce," with an increase in "Sell" recommendations [11] Future Catalysts - Investors are looking for significant positive catalysts, such as the successful rollout of Intel 18A process technology and major design wins in the IFS division [12][13] - Any indication of Intel recovering market share in its core businesses against competitors like AMD and ARM would be positively received [14] Investor Sentiment - The market remains skeptical about Intel's ability to drive significant growth through internal reforms alone, emphasizing the need for successful execution and demonstrable results [17][18]