Earnings Preview: American Financial Group (AFG) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Financial Group (AFG) despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - AFG is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 21.4%, while revenues are projected to be $1.94 billion, an increase of 2.9% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for May 6, 2025, and could lead to stock price increases if results exceed expectations [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.2% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive adjustment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for AFG is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.42%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict earnings deviations, with positive readings being more reliable [6][7]. - AFG's current Zacks Rank is 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AFG was expected to post earnings of $3.20 per share but delivered only $3.12, resulting in a surprise of -2.50% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, AFG has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Industry Comparison - Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD), another player in the property and casualty insurance sector, is expected to report earnings of $0.78 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 4% [17]. - SKWD has an Earnings ESP of 8.15% and has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, contrasting with AFG's performance [18].