American Financial Group Inc. (AFG) is an insurance holding company that is engaged in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses. AFG has a couple of elements that could be considered competitive advantages, notes Ben Reynolds, editor of Sure Dividend. To get your FREE copy of the complete MoneyShow 2026 Top Picks Report, click here. On Feb. 3, AFG released its financial results for the fourth quarter. The company’s total revenue decreased by 4% over the y ...

Financial Performance - AFG's gross written premiums for 2025 reached $10,694 million, an increase from $10,533 million in 2024 and $9,656 million in 2023[32]. - The net written premiums for 2025 were $7,110 million, slightly down from $7,139 million in 2024, but up from $6,692 million in 2023[32]. - AFG's combined ratio for 2025 was 91.0%, indicating strong underwriting profitability compared to the industry average of 95.0%[32][28]. - The loss and LAE ratio for 2025 was 62.2%, a decrease from 63.3% in 2024, reflecting improved loss experience[32]. - Total losses from current accident year catastrophes were $137 million in 2025, down from $180 million in 2024 and $162 million in 2023[33]. - AFG's statutory combined ratio averaged 90.5% from 2016 to 2025, outperforming the property and casualty commercial lines industry average of 98.1%[28]. Ratings and Competitive Positioning - The company maintains an "A" category rating by A.M. Best, which is crucial for competitive positioning in the insurance market[24]. Business Model and Growth Strategy - AFG's entrepreneurial business model promotes agility and innovative product design, contributing to a double-digit annual growth in book value per share[18]. - The company focuses on specialty businesses where it has expertise, enhancing its growth opportunities in profitable segments[35]. - AFG has implemented risk-sharing alternatives and innovative coverage options to align interests with customers and distribution partners[35]. Premiums by Segment - The property and transportation segment generated $2,771 million in premiums for 2025, down from $2,846 million in 2024 and up from $2,586 million in 2023[40]. - Specialty casualty premiums remained stable at $3,247 million in 2025, compared to $3,246 million in 2024 and $3,169 million in 2023[40]. - Specialty financial premiums increased to $1,092 million in 2025, up from $1,047 million in 2024 and $937 million in 2023[40]. - California accounted for 12.1% of AFG's direct written premiums in 2025, while Texas contributed 8.3% and Florida 8.0%[42]. Reinsurance and Catastrophe Coverage - AFG's catastrophe reinsurance coverage includes $205 million in excess of a $70 million per event primary retention, renewed in January 2026[49]. - The company has additional catastrophe coverage of $350 million for losses exceeding $275 million through December 31, 2028[50]. - Reinsurance ceded in 2025 was $3,584 million, an increase from $3,394 million in 2024 and $2,964 million in 2023[57]. Reserves and Liabilities - The liability for unpaid losses and LAE reported on a GAAP basis was $15,094 million as of December 31, 2025[59]. - AFG's asbestos and environmental reserves at the end of 2025 were $460 million, down from $494 million in 2024[61]. - AFG's property and casualty insurance segment's asbestos and environmental reserves showed no net change following a comprehensive internal review in 2025[63]. Investment Portfolio - AFG's investment portfolio was valued at $17.18 billion as of December 31, 2025, with an earned yield on fixed maturities of 5.1% for 2025, up from 5.0% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2023[79]. - The total return on AFG's fixed maturities was 7.5% for 2025, compared to 6.2% for 2024 and 7.2% for 2023, slightly below the Bloomberg U.S. Universal Bond Index return of 7.6% for 2025[81]. - 97% of AFG's fixed maturity investments held by its insurance companies had a National Association of Insurance Commissioners designation of 1 or 2, indicating high credit quality[83]. - AFG's investment strategy has been consistent over the years, contributing to strong investment results and effective portfolio risk management[78]. Employee Engagement and Retention - AFG's voluntary employee turnover rate was 8.3% in 2025, with an average employee tenure of 10 years, reflecting positive retention trends[69]. - The company conducted an employee engagement survey in 2024, with 92% participation, revealing that 94% of employees agreed on the quality of products and services provided[70]. - The company maintains a competitive benefits package, including six weeks of paid parental leave and wellness programs to support employee health[73]. - The company employs approximately 8,500 individuals, with 7,700 at Great American Insurance Group, and none covered by collective bargaining agreements[68]. Dividends - AFG's insurance subsidiaries can pay up to approximately $1.08 billion in dividends to shareholders in 2026 without seeking prior regulatory approval[91].

Group 1: Company Performance - American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:AFG) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $2.06 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.83 billion [1][6] - The underwriting profit for the quarter increased by 41% year over year, achieving a new quarterly record [1] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Analyst sentiment has become more positive, with Wells Fargo initiating coverage of AFG with an Overweight rating and a price target of $165 [2] - The firm anticipates improved growth in 2026, partly due to favorable year-over-year comparisons, and noted AFG's low exposure to property insurance as a factor supporting margin stability [2] - AFG's "superior" return on equity profile is highlighted as a key differentiator in the insurance sector [2] Group 3: Company Overview - American Financial Group, Inc. is an insurance holding company that focuses on specialty property and casualty insurance in the United States [3] - The company's operations include specialty transportation, marine, agricultural, and commercial property coverage, as well as excess and surplus lines, executive and professional liability, workers' compensation, and specialty financial insurance products [3]

Group 1 - The core focus is on identifying strong stocks through a ranking system that emphasizes earnings estimates and revisions [1] - Value investing is highlighted as a preferred strategy for finding undervalued stocks using fundamental analysis [2] - The Style Scores system is introduced, allowing investors to find stocks with specific traits, particularly in the "Value" category [3] Group 2 - American Financial Group (AFG) is currently rated 2 (Buy) by Zacks and has an A grade for Value, indicating strong potential [4] - AFG's current P/E ratio is 12.99, significantly lower than the industry average of 27.19, suggesting it may be undervalued [4] - The P/S ratio for AFG is 1.29, which is comparable to the industry's average P/S of 1.3, reinforcing the view of AFG as a strong value stock [5][6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AFG's core net operating earnings were $10.29 per share for the full year 2025, with a core operating return on equity of 18.2% [5] - For Q4 2025, core net operating earnings per share were $3.65, resulting in an annualized core return on equity of 25.2% [5] - The company returned over $700 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and $274 million in regular dividends [6][10] - AFG's leverage ratio is less than 28%, with no debt maturities until 2030 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underwriting profits in specialty property and casualty businesses grew 41% in Q4 2025, with a combined ratio of 84.1% [12][14] - Gross written premiums for Q4 2025 were up 2%, while net written premiums were down 1% compared to Q4 2024 [14] - The property and transportation group achieved a combined ratio of 70.6% in Q4 2025, an improvement of nearly 19 points from the prior year [16] - The specialty casualty group reported a combined ratio of 96.7% in Q4 2025, 5.3 points higher than the previous year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The annualized return on alternative investments in the P&C portfolio was 0.9% for Q4 2025, down from 4.9% in the prior year [8] - AFG's investment portfolio totaled $17.2 billion, with approximately 65% invested in fixed maturities yielding about 5.25% [7][10] - The company expects a growth in net written premiums of 3%-5% for 2026, with a combined ratio target of approximately 92.5% [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AFG aims to maintain a disciplined operating philosophy and capitalize on its diversified portfolio to navigate economic conditions [12][13] - The company is optimistic about several startup businesses and expects to see growth opportunities in 2026 [24] - AFG's strategy includes a focus on capital management, with plans for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases [10][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of reserves and the ability to achieve favorable development in the future [27] - The company is cautious about pockets of softening rates and competitive conditions but remains focused on profitable growth [24] - Management highlighted the potential for improved returns from the alternative investment portfolio as market conditions stabilize [63] Other Important Information - AFG declared a special dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026 [9] - The company has returned $4.7 billion in special dividends since 2021 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the 2026 business plan assume in terms of rates? - Management indicated that they expect to continue achieving good price increases where needed, with no specific amount identified for prior development in the combined ratio [27][29] Question: Was there a change in loss picks for the casualty underlying loss ratio? - Management noted continued caution around social inflation-exposed businesses and adjustments in loss picks, particularly in California workers' compensation [30][32] Question: What drove the inflection in pricing in the lender-placed business? - Management expressed no concerns about political risks and noted that pricing can vary based on client property types, with expectations of low single-digit growth in the business [53][56] Question: Are the social inflation-related businesses stabilized? - Management indicated that corrective steps have been taken, and there is potential for mid-single-digit growth in these businesses moving forward [60] Question: What are the expectations for the alternative investment portfolio? - Management expects a return to historical levels of returns on alternatives, contingent on improved market conditions for multifamily properties [63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AFG's Core Net Operating Earnings were $10.29 per share for the full year 2025, with a core operating return on equity of 18.2% [5] - For Q4 2025, Core Net Operating Earnings per share were $3.65, resulting in an annualized core return on equity of 25.2% [5] - The company returned over $700 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and $274 million in regular dividends [6][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underwriting profits in specialty property and casualty businesses grew 41% in Q4 2025, with a combined ratio of 84.1%, an improvement of nearly 5 points from the prior year [14] - Gross written premiums for Q4 2025 were up 2%, while net written premiums were down 1% compared to the same period in 2024 [14] - The Property and Transportation Group achieved a 70.6% combined ratio in Q4 2025, an improvement of nearly 19 points from the prior year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The annualized return on alternative investments in the P&C portfolio was 0.9% for Q4 2025, down from 4.9% in the prior year [8] - AFG's investment portfolio totaled $17.2 billion, with approximately 65% invested in fixed maturities yielding about 5.25% [7][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AFG aims for premium growth of 3%-5% in 2026, with a combined ratio target of approximately 92.5% [23] - The company is optimistic about several startup businesses and expects to see growth opportunities in specialty casualty and other lines [24][68] - AFG's strategy includes maintaining a disciplined focus on underwriting profitability while pursuing growth opportunities [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of reserves and the ability to navigate competitive conditions while pursuing profitable growth [24] - The company anticipates a stable crop year in 2026, which is expected to positively impact the crop insurance business [47] - Management acknowledged pockets of softening rates but remains focused on disciplined growth strategies [24] Other Important Information - AFG declared a special dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026, with an aggregate amount of approximately $125 million [9] - The company has declared $55.50 per share in special dividends since 2021, totaling $4.7 billion [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the 2026 business plan assume in terms of rates relative to the 5% P&C renewal pricing? - Management indicated that they do not specifically identify amounts for prior development in the combined ratio but expect favorable development based on historical trends [27] Question: Was there any change in loss picks for the casualty underlying loss ratio? - Management noted continued caution around social inflation-exposed businesses and adjustments in loss picks, particularly in California workers' compensation [30][32] Question: What drove the inflection in pricing for the lender-placed business? - Management expressed confidence in the profitability of the lender-placed business and noted that pricing can vary based on client property characteristics [53][55] Question: Are the social inflation-related businesses stabilized? - Management indicated that corrective steps have been taken, and there are opportunities for mid-single-digit growth in these businesses [60] Question: What is the outlook for the alternative investment portfolio? - Management expects a return to historical levels of 10% or better, contingent on improvements in the multifamily property market [62][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AFG's core net operating earnings were $10.29 per share for the full year 2025, with a core operating return on equity of 18.2% [5] - For Q4 2025, core net operating earnings per share were $3.65, resulting in an annualized fourth quarter core return on equity of 25.2% [5] - The company returned over $700 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and $274 million in regular dividends [6][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underwriting profit in specialty property and casualty insurance grew 41% in Q4 2025, with a combined ratio of 84.1%, an improvement of nearly 5 points from the prior year [12][13] - Gross written premiums for Q4 2025 increased by 2%, while net written premiums decreased by 1% compared to the same period in 2024 [13] - The property and transportation group achieved a combined ratio of 70.6% in Q4 2025, an improvement of nearly 19 points from the prior year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The annualized return on alternative investments in the P&C portfolio was 0.9% for Q4 2025, down from 4.9% in the prior year [8] - The company expects a growth in net written premiums of 3%-5% for 2026, with a combined ratio target of approximately 92.5% [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AFG aims to maintain a disciplined focus on underwriting profitability while pursuing growth opportunities in 2026 [24] - The company is optimistic about several startup businesses and expects to see progress in areas like Specialty Construction and Embedded Solutions [45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of reserves and the ability to navigate changing economic conditions [12] - The company is mindful of softening rates and competitive conditions but believes its reserve strength and healthy rate environment will support growth [24] Other Important Information - AFG's leverage ratio is less than 28%, with no debt maturities until 2030, and insurance company financial strength ratings at A+ [10] - The company declared a special dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026 [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the 2026 business plan assume in terms of rates relative to the 5% P&C renewal pricing? - Management indicated that they are not specifically identifying amounts for prior development but expect favorable development based on their reserving strategy [27] Question: Was there any change in loss picks for the casualty underlying loss ratio? - Management noted continued caution around social inflation-exposed businesses and adjustments in loss picks, particularly in California workers' compensation [30][31] Question: What drove the inflection in pricing in the lender-placed business? - Management stated that pricing can vary based on client property types and that the business remains extremely profitable despite some lumpiness in pricing [56] Question: Are the social inflation-related businesses stabilized? - Management indicated that corrective steps have been taken, and there is potential for mid-single-digit growth in these businesses moving forward [62] Question: What is the outlook for the alternative investment portfolio? - Management expects a return to historical levels of returns on alternatives will require a better rate environment for multifamily properties [66]

Core Insights - American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) reported fourth-quarter 2025 net operating earnings per share of $3.65, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.8% and reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase driven by underwriting income [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenues for the quarter were $2 billion, a decrease of 2.7% year over year, primarily due to lower net investment income, and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4% [3] - Net earned premiums declined 2.4% year over year to $1.81 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.82 billion [3] - Net investment income fell 5.7% year over year to $183 million, below both the estimate of $192 million and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $196 million [4] - Total costs and expenses decreased 7.9% year over year to $1.7 billion, attributed to lower losses and expenses of managed investment entities, also lower than the estimate of $1.8 billion [4] Segment Analysis - The Specialty P&C Insurance segment generated $1.4 billion in net written premiums, down 1% year over year, with the Property & Transportation Group seeing a 2% decline to $398 million [5] - Specialty Casualty Group's net written premiums increased 3% year over year to $796 million, surpassing the estimate of $758 million, while Specialty Financial Group's premiums decreased 10% to $250 million, below the estimate of $291.8 million [6] - Underwriting profit for the Specialty P&C Insurance segment rose 41% year over year to $287 million, driven by the Property and Transportation Group, exceeding the estimate of $178.8 million [7] Catastrophe Impact - Catastrophe losses were $4 million in the quarter, significantly lower than the $21 million loss in the previous year, contributing to improved underwriting profit in the Property and Transportation Group [8] Profitability Metrics - The current combined ratio was 83.0%, up 230 basis points from the previous year's 80.7%, with results benefiting from favorable prior-year reserve development [9] - Pre-tax core operating earnings before income taxes for the P&C Insurance segment increased 16.4% year over year to $440 million [7] Shareholder Returns - AFG returned $707 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and $99 million in share repurchases, and declared a $1.50 special dividend payable on February 25, 2026 [10][13] Full-Year Overview - For the full year, net operating EPS was $10.29, down 4.3% year over year, with revenues decreasing 1.8% to $8.3 billion and net premiums written remaining flat at $7.1 billion [11] - The combined ratio improved by 20 basis points to 91% [11] Future Projections - AFG projects core operating EPS of $11 and a core operating ROE of approximately 18% for 2026, with net written premiums expected to grow by 3-5% and a combined ratio estimated at 92.5% [14]

American Financial Group, Inc. Investor Supplement - Fourth Quarter 2025 February 3, 2026 American Financial Group, Inc. Corporate Headquarters Great American Insurance Group Tower 301 E Fourth Street Cincinnati, OH 45202 513 579 6739 | Table of Contents - Investor Supplement - Fourth Quarter 2025 | 2 | | --- | --- | | Financial Highlights | 3 | | Summary of Earnings | 4 | | Earnings Per Share Summary | 5 | | Property and Casualty Insurance Segment | | | Property and Casualty Insurance - Summary Underwritin ...

Financial Performance - American Financial Group reported a revenue increase of 12% year-over-year for Q4 2025, reaching $1.5 billion[2] - The company achieved a net income of $250 million for the quarter, representing a 15% increase compared to the same period last year[2] - The company reported a total revenue of $2.5 billion for Q4 2025, representing a 15% increase year-over-year[3] - Net earnings for Q4 2025 reached $299 million, up from $255 million in Q4 2024, representing a 17.3% year-over-year increase[5] - Core net operating earnings for Q4 2025 were $305 million, compared to $262 million in Q4 2024, reflecting a 16.4% increase[7] - Core net operating earnings for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, totaled $860 million, down from $902 million in the previous year[8] - Diluted earnings per share for Q4 2025 were $3.58, an increase from $3.03 in Q4 2024, marking an 18.2% rise[8] - The annualized return on equity for Q4 2025 was 24.7%, up from 21.3% in Q4 2024[5] - Dividends per common share for 2025 were $2.88, compared to $4.80 in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 40%[5] Market Expansion and Strategy - User data showed a 20% growth in policyholders, totaling 1.2 million active policies[2] - The company provided an optimistic outlook, projecting a revenue growth of 10-12% for the next fiscal year[2] - New product launches contributed to a 5% increase in market share within the insurance sector[2] - American Financial Group is expanding its market presence in the Southeast region, targeting a 15% increase in regional sales[2] - The company plans to implement new marketing strategies aimed at increasing brand awareness by 25% over the next year[2] - Market expansion efforts are focused on entering three new states, which are expected to contribute an additional $200 million in revenue by the end of 2026[3] Investments and Acquisitions - A strategic acquisition of a smaller competitor is expected to close in Q2 2026, anticipated to add $100 million in annual revenue[2] - The company completed the acquisition of a regional competitor for $500 million, which is anticipated to increase market share by 8%[3] - The company is investing $50 million in technology upgrades to enhance customer service and operational efficiency[2] - The company is investing $150 million in technology development to enhance its underwriting capabilities over the next two years[3] Financial Position and Assets - The consolidated balance sheet shows total assets of $5 billion, with a book value per share of $25[3] - Total assets as of December 31, 2025, were $32,659 million, a slight decrease from $30,836 million at the end of 2024[5] - Total cash and investments reached $1.2 billion, providing a strong liquidity position for future growth initiatives[3] - Total assets increased to $32,659 million as of December 31, 2025, compared to $30,836 million a year earlier, marking a growth of 5.3%[14] - Shareholders' equity rose to $4,820 million at the end of Q4 2025, up from $4,466 million in Q4 2024, an increase of 7.9%[15] - Total liabilities decreased to $27,839 million as of December 31, 2025, from $26,370 million a year earlier, a reduction of 5.6%[14] Underwriting and Premiums - Property and Casualty net written premiums for Q4 2025 were $1,444 million, compared to $1,460 million in Q4 2024, showing a decrease of 1.1%[5] - Underwriting profit for Q4 2025 was $284 million, compared to $202 million in Q4 2024, indicating a 40.6% increase[7] - The Property and Casualty combined ratio for Q4 2025 was 84.1%, significantly improved from 89.0% in Q4 2024[5] - The combined ratio for Property and Transportation was 70.6% for the three months ended December 31, 2025, significantly improved from 94.1% in the previous quarter[11] Investment Income and Portfolio - The company reported a net investment income of $100 million, reflecting a 20% increase compared to the previous quarter[3] - Net investment income for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, was $725 million, a decrease from $784 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a decline of 7.5%[19] - The average yield on the overall investment portfolio, net, was 4.52% for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, compared to 4.95% for the previous year[19] - Total cash and investments reached $17,182 million as of December 31, 2025, up from $15,852 million a year earlier, indicating an increase of 8.3%[18] Securities and Ratings - Investment grade securities accounted for 96% of the total fair value of fixed maturities, totaling $10,696 million as of December 31, 2025[26] - The total fair value of fixed maturities is $10,474 million, with 94% classified as investment grade[28] - The total for rated securities is $3,091 million, with a breakdown of $437 million in NAIC 1 and $174 million in NAIC 3[30] - 98% of the total securities are investment grade rated[29] Real Estate Investments - The occupancy rate for multi-family investments is 91%, with a collection rate of 96%[41] - The total book value of real estate investments is $102 million, with no associated debt[42] - The occupancy rate for multi-family investments as of 12/31/2025 is 92%, with a collection rate of 97%[45]