Robinhood Set to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's How to Play HOOD Stock

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets is expected to report strong first-quarter 2025 results, driven by a surge in crypto trading, increased net interest income, and a rise in Gold subscribers, following an impressive fourth-quarter performance [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly sales is $898.60 million, reflecting a 45.4% year-over-year improvement. Earnings estimates have been revised 3% lower to 32 cents, indicating a 77.8% increase from the same quarter last year [5][6]. - Robinhood has a history of earnings surprises, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 80.75% [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - Transaction revenues are projected to reach $547.7 million, a 66.5% increase year-over-year, driven by higher options, equity, and cryptocurrency transactions [9][10]. - The consensus estimate for options transaction revenues is $229.8 million, suggesting a 49.2% growth. Equity transaction revenues are expected to rise by 54.6%, while cryptocurrency transaction revenues are projected to jump 109.6% [10]. - Net interest income is estimated at $296.5 million, indicating a 16.7% rise, supported by higher interest rates [11]. Expense Considerations - Total operating expenses are anticipated to remain high due to investments in platform capabilities, product innovation, customer support, and regulatory compliance. The pending acquisition of Bitstamp may also incur restructuring charges [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Robinhood shares have increased by 13.2% in the first quarter of 2024, outperforming the industry, which declined by 1.3% [15]. - Currently, HOOD trades at 5.73X 12-month trailing price/tangible book, significantly above its three-year median of 1.46X and the industry average of 2.62 [18]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on expanding its operations and diversifying its offerings, with plans to enhance its cryptocurrency capabilities and enter European and Asia Pacific markets [21][22]. - A share buyback plan has been authorized for up to $1 billion, with approximately $743 million remaining available for repurchase as of December 31, 2024 [23]. Market Challenges - Increased regulatory oversight and competition in the banking sector pose challenges for Robinhood, particularly regarding the distinction between gambling and trading [24][25].