Allstate to Report Q1 Earnings: Can Higher Premiums Save the Day?

Core Viewpoint - The Allstate Corporation is expected to report a significant decline in earnings for Q1 2025, with a consensus estimate of $2.27 per share, reflecting a 55.8% year-over-year decrease, despite an anticipated revenue increase of 11% to $17.13 billion [1][2]. Financial Performance Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate's total revenues in 2025 is $69.45 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 7.95%, while the EPS estimate for 2025 is $16.75, suggesting an 8.6% decline year-over-year [2]. - The first-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by 37.3% over the past 60 days [1]. Earnings Surprises and Predictions - Allstate has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, achieving an average surprise of 127.1% over the last four quarters [2]. - The current Earnings ESP for Allstate is 0.00%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3]. Key Business Segments - The net premiums earned are projected to grow by 11.4% year-over-year, while net investment income is expected to increase by 7.5% from $764 million [5]. - Adjusted net income from the Protection Services business is estimated to grow by 19.6% year-over-year [6]. - Underwriting income from the Auto brand is expected to reach $525.5 million, up from $351 million a year ago, with an improved combined ratio of 94.64% compared to 96% in the previous year [7]. - The underwriting loss from Commercial Lines is projected to decrease to $29 million from $70 million a year ago [8]. Cost and Expense Outlook - Total costs and expenses are anticipated to rise by more than 12% year-over-year due to increased operating costs and claims expenses, which may offset some positive growth indicators [8].