Core Insights - Catastrophic weather events are increasingly common in Canada, with only 27% of homeowners feeling confident in their preparedness for such events [1] - Allstate's data indicates that 29% of claims over the last decade were due to major weather events, with a significant spike in claims in 2024, approximately 2.4 times higher than in 2023 [2] - The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that 2024 was the costliest year for severe weather-related losses in Canadian history, exceeding $8.5 billion [3] Preparedness Recommendations - Homeowners are advised to create an emergency plan, build an emergency kit, secure their property, prepare for wildfires, and review their insurance coverage [8] - Allstate emphasizes the importance of proactive measures to mitigate damage from severe weather, as personal items are often irreplaceable [4] Research Methodology - A Léger poll was conducted among 1,000 Canadian homeowners to assess their preparedness for extreme weather events, with a margin of error of ± 3.1% for a probabilistic sample [6]

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation has successfully divested its Employer Voluntary Benefits business to StanCorp Financial Group for $2 billion, completing the transaction as planned within the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The divestiture resulted in a pre-tax book gain of approximately $625 million, which will enhance Allstate's capital management strategy, including a new $1.5 billion share buyback program running until September 30, 2026 [2] - Allstate is also in the process of divesting its Group Health business to Nationwide for expected proceeds of $1.25 billion, with total proceeds from both divestitures projected to reach $3.25 billion by 2025 [3][4] Strategic Focus - Allstate's divestiture strategy aims to free up capital from lower-return businesses and reinvest it into core operations, particularly in the personal property-liability sector and protection services [5] - The Property-Liability business saw an 11.2% year-over-year increase in earned premiums in 2024, driven by prudent rate hikes, while the Protection Services segment experienced a 16.7% revenue growth, primarily due to strong performance in Allstate Protection Plans and Arity [6] Market Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 19.7% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 24.5%, and the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Property and casualty insurer, The Allstate Corporation (ALL) remains well-poised on the back of rising premiums, growing protection services business and streamlining initiatives. Strong contributions by the Property-Liability, Protection Services and Allstate Health and Benefits segments should help sustain the top-line growth momentum of Allstate. Peer companies like Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) and Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) have witnessed premium increases of 54.6% and 17.1% year over year in the ...

Group 1 - The Allstate Corporation has successfully completed a multi-year turnaround through effective cost-cutting and business efficiency measures [1] - The years 2022 and 2023 were particularly challenging for the company [1] Group 2 - The company is recognized as one of the largest property and casualty insurance firms in the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - Allstate has recently gained attention as one of the most searched stocks, with a notable performance compared to the broader market and its industry [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, Allstate is expected to report earnings of $3.98 per share, reflecting a decrease of -22.4% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate change of -3.8% over the last 30 days [5]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $18.62, indicating a slight increase of +1.6% from the previous year, with a minor change of -0.2% in the last month [5]. - For the next fiscal year, the earnings estimate is $21.64, suggesting a growth of +16.2% year-over-year, with an increase of +1.8% in the past month [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $17.13 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of +11% [9]. - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimates are $69.64 billion and $74.95 billion for the next fiscal year, indicating changes of +8.3% and +7.6%, respectively [9]. Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Allstate achieved revenues of $16.71 billion, a year-over-year increase of +12.1%, with an EPS of $7.67 compared to $5.82 a year ago [10]. - The reported revenues were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing a surprise of -0.01%, while the EPS surprise was +17.82% [11]. - Allstate has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters and topped revenue estimates three times during this period [11]. Valuation - Allstate is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [15]. - The evaluation of valuation multiples such as P/E, P/S, and P/CF is essential to determine if the stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued [13][14]. Conclusion - The current Zacks Rank of 3 suggests that Allstate may perform in line with the broader market in the near term, despite the market buzz surrounding the stock [16].

Group 1: Catastrophe Losses - The Allstate Corporation reported catastrophe losses for February 2025 amounting to $92 million, or $73 million after-tax, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.17 billion, or $922 million after-tax when combined with January's losses [1] - Catastrophe losses negatively impact underwriting profits and the combined ratio, leading to potential strain on margins for property and casualty (P&C) insurers [2] - In 2024, total catastrophe losses reached $5 billion, while P&C insurance premiums earned increased by 11.2% year over year [3] Group 2: Policy Updates - Allstate's auto policies in force increased to 24.89 million in February 2025, a 0.2% increase from January, but a 0.9% decline from February 2024 [4] - Homeowners policies in force rose to 7.5 million, reflecting a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth [4] - Personal lines policies in force slightly increased to 4.873 million, marking a 0.1% month-over-month increase and a 0.4% year-over-year increase [5] - Commercial lines policies in force decreased to 196,000, a 3.9% decline from January and a 29% decrease from February 2024 [6] - Overall, Allstate had 37.5 million policies in force at the end of February 2025, a 0.2% increase from the prior month but a 0.3% decrease from the same period last year [7] Group 3: Share Price Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 27.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 24.8% [8] Group 4: Competitor Analysis - Competitors in the P&C insurance space include The Hanover Insurance Group, Old Republic International Corporation, and Horace Mann Educators Corporation, with varying Zacks Ranks indicating their investment potential [9] - Hanover Insurance has shown strong earnings performance, with a 21.74% average surprise over the last four quarters and a projected 7.7% improvement in 2025 earnings [10] - Old Republic has consistently outperformed estimates, with a 37.25% average surprise and a projected 5% improvement in 2025 earnings [11] - Horace Mann's earnings have surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters, with a projected 21.7% improvement in 2025 earnings [12] - In the past year, shares of Hanover Insurance, Old Republic, and Horace Mann have gained 33.2%, 26.5%, and 16%, respectively [13]

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's stock has shown resilience in the market, outperforming major indices despite a forecasted decline in earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming quarter while revenue is expected to increase. Group 1: Stock Performance - Allstate's stock closed at $202, reflecting a +1.89% change from the previous trading day's close, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 0.91% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate shares gained 4.71%, contrasting with the Finance sector's loss of 5.01% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.38% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Allstate is projected to report an EPS of $3.98, representing a 22.42% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $17.13 billion, indicating an 11.04% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Annual Estimates - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $18.62 per share and revenue at $69.64 billion, reflecting changes of +1.64% and +8.26% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a favorable outlook on Allstate's business health and profitability [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 1.01% downward over the past month, and Allstate currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Allstate has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.65, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 11.47, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.08, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.68, suggesting a more favorable growth outlook relative to its valuation [7] Group 6: Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 34, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, indicating a strong competitive position for Allstate within its industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Several insurance companies, including National General and Allstate, are facing a lawsuit from the New York State Attorney General for failing to protect consumer personal information and mishandling data breaches [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Breaches - The lawsuit alleges that National General failed to notify consumers about a data breach in 2021 and allowed a larger breach to occur in 2022 [2][5]. - The first data breach exposed the driver's license numbers of nearly 12,000 individuals, while the second breach compromised the driver's license numbers of an additional 187,000 consumers [5]. - National General is accused of not implementing reasonable data security measures before and after Allstate took over its data security operations [3][4]. Group 2: Company Responses - Allstate stated that they resolved the issue years ago by securing their systems after identifying vulnerabilities and notified regulators and affected consumers [4]. - The lawsuit seeks penalties and an injunction to prevent any continued violations of data security laws [5].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's recent earnings report indicates strong performance driven by premium growth and investment income, despite facing challenges from elevated catastrophe losses and rising costs [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Allstate reported Q4 2024 adjusted net income of $7.67 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17.8% and showing a nearly 32% year-over-year increase [2]. - Operating revenues for Q4 2024 reached $16.71 billion, a 12.1% increase year-over-year, although it slightly missed consensus estimates [2][4]. - For the full year 2024, operating revenues totaled $64.33 billion, up from $57.39 billion in 2023, and adjusted net income surged to $18.32 per share from $0.95 a year ago [4]. Premiums and Investment Income - Consolidated premiums written in Q4 2024 were $15.06 billion, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year improvement [5]. - Net investment income rose to $833 million, a 46.2% increase year-over-year, driven by repositioning into higher-yielding fixed-income securities [5]. Costs and Expenses - Total costs and expenses increased by 8.1% year-over-year to $14 billion, primarily due to higher property and casualty insurance claims [6]. - Catastrophe losses rose significantly to $410 million from $68 million a year ago [6]. Segment Performance - The Property-Liability segment's premiums earned increased by 10.6% year-over-year to $13.9 billion, although it fell short of estimates by 0.5% [8]. - The Protection Services segment saw revenues of $889 million, a 23.6% year-over-year increase, with adjusted net income rising to $50 million from $4 million [9]. - The Allstate Health and Benefits segment's premium and contract charges improved by 3.2% year-over-year to $482 million, but adjusted net income dropped by 41.7% [10][11]. Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, Allstate had a cash balance of $704 million and total assets of $111.6 billion, up from $103.4 billion a year earlier [12]. - Total equity increased to $21.4 billion from $17.6 billion at the end of 2024 [12]. - Book value per common share was $72.35, reflecting a 21.8% year-over-year increase [13]. Future Outlook - Allstate anticipates an increase in total Property-Liability policies in 2025 as auto insurance policy renewal rates improve [14]. - However, recent estimates have shown a downward trend, with a consensus estimate shift of -27.35% [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's stock has shown a positive return of +3.4% over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -4.1%, indicating potential resilience in its performance [1] Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, Allstate is expected to report earnings of $4 per share, reflecting a decrease of -22% year-over-year, with the consensus estimate dropping by -23.6% in the last 30 days [4] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $18.65, indicating a slight increase of +1.8% from the previous year, with a minor change of -0.6% over the last month [4] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate is $21.61, suggesting a growth of +15.9% compared to the previous year, with a recent increase of +4.1% [5] Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $17.13 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of +11% [8] - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is $69.64 billion, indicating a growth of +8.3%, while the next fiscal year's estimate is $74.95 billion, reflecting a +7.6% change [8] Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Allstate achieved revenues of $16.71 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of +12.1%, with an EPS of $7.67 compared to $5.82 a year ago [9] - The reported revenues were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing a surprise of -0.01%, while the EPS surprise was +17.82% [10] - Allstate has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters and has topped revenue estimates three times during this period [10] Valuation - Allstate is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating that it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [14]