Analyst Warns Starbucks Faces Growing Risks From Competition, Costs, and Global Tensions

Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort has reiterated a Neutral rating on Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) and lowered the price forecast from $95 to $83 following the company's Q2 fiscal year 2025 financial results, which showed revenue and earnings per share below analyst expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - Starbucks reported Q2 revenue of $8.76 billion, missing the analyst estimate of $8.86 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.41, below the consensus of $0.50 [1]. - Consolidated net revenue rose 2% year-over-year, but global comparable store sales fell 1%, with transactions down 2% and average ticket up 1% [2]. Market Conditions and Competition - Rising competition from local brands, the impact of the trade war, and potential resistance to U.S. brands are cited as risks for Starbucks [3]. - North America comparable store sales decreased by 1%, international sales fell by 2%, and sales in China remained flat [2]. Margin and Cost Management - Margin expansion forecasts have been lowered, with 2027 EBIT margins now expected to improve by approximately 150 basis points over 2025, down from 270 basis points previously [3]. - The U.S. workforce for Starbucks has shrunk by about 3% over five years, despite a 12% increase in store count, indicating ongoing pressure on managing store operating costs [4]. Commodity Prices - The adjustment in margin forecasts considers expected relief in arabica coffee prices, which are currently above $4 per pound but are forecasted to dip to the low $3s by late 2026 [4]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings report, Starbucks shares were down 1.24% in after-hours trading, priced at $83.80 at the time of publication [5].