贸易战的“牌”已经出完，黄金迎来大级别调整

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The spot price of gold in London surged above 350 billion yuan, followed by a significant sell-off, leading to a sharp decline the next day, with the U.S. gold ETF experiencing a record single-day redemption of -1.3 billion USD, surpassing the panic triggered by the Swiss National Bank's intervention in 2011 [2] - Despite the sell-off, there is a strong buying force from Asia, particularly from Chinese investors, which is stabilizing the bottom of the gold market. In Q1, China increased its gold holdings by 12.75 tons, and domestic gold ETF holdings grew by 23.47 tons, a year-on-year increase of 327.73% [2] - As gold prices corrected rapidly, long positions in gold futures were significantly reduced, with hedge fund managers cutting net long positions to the lowest level in over a year [2] Group 2: Economic and Market Context - The recent surge in gold prices was primarily driven by the chaos in the global economic order due to Trump's trade war, which led to a decline in the credibility of U.S. bonds and the dollar, prompting a flight to gold as a safe haven [3] - Adjacent markets have stabilized, with the dollar index remaining above 99 and U.S. stock indices gradually recovering, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased from 4.425% [3] - The relationship between gold and the dollar/stock market is viewed as inversely correlated, suggesting that as the dollar and stock markets stabilize, a significant adjustment in gold prices is anticipated [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Developments - Trump announced a significant reduction in the 145% tariffs on China, while maintaining that they would not drop to zero, and he will suspend the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [4] - Various countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, have begun negotiations to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Vietnam and Indonesia making commitments to increase imports of U.S. goods [6] - The semiconductor equipment manufacturing sector in the U.S. is facing substantial losses due to tariffs, with major companies projected to lose over 1 billion USD collectively, impacting small businesses significantly [7]