YYTH(600096) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-30 00:22Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to falling prices of phosphate and urea products, but showed a positive trend in cash flow from operating activities [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.2% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.289 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.7 yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 41.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Operating cash flow net amount was 2.85 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - Gross profit was 2.037 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 18.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 15.7%, down 2.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1]. Product Segment Performance - Phosphate revenue was 3.923 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year but up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 1.277 million tons, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year and 21.6% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Urea revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 754,000 tons, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Compound fertilizer revenue was 1.501 billion yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year but down 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 525,000 tons, an increase of 23.2% year-on-year and 17.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Feed-grade calcium phosphate revenue was 493 million yuan, up 31.9% year-on-year but down 14% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 127,000 tons, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year but down 22.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Industry Trends - The phosphate rock supply-demand situation is tight, with prices expected to remain high; the Zhenxiong phosphate mine is anticipated to provide growth opportunities [3]. - The current market average price for phosphate rock (30%) is 1,020 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level [3]. - The company has 14.5 million tons of phosphate rock production capacity and is actively advancing exploration and planning for the Zhenxiong phosphate mine [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025/26 unchanged, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.4x and 7.6x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The target price is set at 26.5 yuan, indicating a 19% upside potential and P/E ratios of 8.9x and 9.0x for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating [4].