2026年1月16日 1月15日标的指数成份股涨跌幅TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 車日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 688516 SH | 奥特维 | 8.15 | 32.30 | 3.80 | | 2 | 000338.SZ | 潍柴动力 | 4.18 | 17.44 | 3.62 | | 3 | 605098.SH | 行动教育 | 4.01 | 11.71 | 5.02 | | 4 | 000933.SZ | 神火股份 | 3.42 | 14.63 | 1.63 | | 5 | 603833.SH | 欧派家居 | 3.33 | 9.67 | 6.85 | | 6 | 600873.SH | 梅花生物 | 3.15 | 3.46 | 4.21 | | 7 | 002091.SZ | 江苏国泰 | 3.14 | 1.99 | 5.26 | | 8 | 605599.SH | 菜自股 ...

华福证券表示，复盘2025年，化工行业经历了盈利与估值的探底，展望2026年，盈利有望触底回升。行业处于供需再平衡的新起点：供给侧的反内卷政策正 在重塑竞争格局，而以AI算力、半导体先进制造、人形机器人为代表的新质生产力将引领新一轮成长。 如何把握化工板块反弹机遇？借道化工ETF（516020）布局效率或更高。公开资料显示，化工ETF（516020）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，成份股覆盖 AI算力、反内卷、机器人、新能源等热门主题。其中近5成仓位集中于大市值龙头股，包括万华化学、盐湖股份等，分享强者恒强投资机遇；其余5成仓位 兼顾布局磷肥及磷化工、氟化工、氮肥等细分领域龙头股，全面把握化工板块投资机会。场外投资者亦可通过化工ETF联接基金（A类012537/C类012538） 布局化工板块。 来源：沪深交易所等，截至2026.1.15。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2012.4.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其 回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举，不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金 ...

化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金（013527）关注化工板块投资机遇。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 2026年1月15日早盘，化工原料、精细化工等板块拉升，截至10:36，中证细分化工产业主题指数强势上 涨2.11%，成分股宏达股份上涨8.95%，广东宏大上涨6.06%，云天化上涨4.64%，多氟多，博源化工等 个股跟涨。 招商证券研报表示，2021年以来，受化工产品价格高景气度影响，石化和化工企业规划较多资本开支， 开启新一轮产能扩张。2022年以来随着新增产能陆续投放，叠加原油价格自高位回落，大部分化工产品 价格持续下跌，造成部分化工产品价格持续下跌，国内企业为了争夺市场份额，实行以价换量策略，导 致整体盈利水平下降。2024年以来，多数化工品价格底部盘整，企业盈利水平仍处于承压状态，随着后 续稳增长工作方案的出台，招商证券认为部分落后产能有望被淘汰，行业整体供需格局将发生边际改 善，产品盈利能力有望提高。 国海证券指出，反内卷政策有望重估中国化工行业，全球化工行业产能扩张预计将大 ...

截至2026年1月15日 10:13，化工ETF天弘(159133)成交953.54万元。跟踪的中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)一度涨超2%，现 涨1.88%，成分股宏达股份上涨6.56%，广东宏大上涨5.48%，云天化上涨4.90%，兴发集团，博源化工等个股跟涨。 截至1月14日，化工ETF天弘(159133)最新规模达8.43亿元，最新份额达7.35亿份，均创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，化工ETF天弘(159133)近11天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"2.33亿元。 【产品亮点】 化工ETF天弘(159133)跟踪的是中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数从市场中选取涉及化学制品、化学纤维、化肥与农药等细分 领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工行业各细分市场的整体表现。该指数具有较高的行业集中度和代表性，为关注 化工行业发展动态的投资者提供了有效的参考工具。 【相关产品】 化工ETF天弘(159133)。对应场外联接基金(A类：015896；C类：015897)。 【热点事件】 供给侧优化窗口开启！传统化工行业加速出清低效产能 财政部宣布自2026年4月1日起取消PVC粉13%出口退 ...

农化制品板块走强，东方铁塔涨超6%盘中创新高，联化科技、潞化科技、百傲化学涨超5%，云天化、 川恒股份跟涨。 ...

| | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | 60分 日 | 周月 | ■客 | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 | 圆线 丁旦 九转 | 10 (2) | 4. ETF (1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.914 | | | | 516020[化工ETF] 11:30 价 0.908 涨跌 0.008(0.89%) 均价 0.906 成交量 0 IOPV 0.9086 | | | | 2026/01/13 | | | | +0.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 11:30:05 交易中 | | | | 0.907 | | | | | | | | | 0.78% | 净值走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 出分 | 3.77% 120日 | | | 0.900 | | | | | | | | | 0.00% | 5日 | -1.09% 250日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20日 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 多项产品出口退税政策调整，不改中国产 业竞争优势 ⚫ 炼化行业我们推荐相关龙头企业中国石化(600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买 入)、恒力石化(600346，买入)；同时，我们持续看好化工各子行业景气复苏机遇， 如 MDI 龙头：万华化学(600309，买入) ；PVC 行业，相关企业包括：中泰化学 (002092，未评级)、新疆天业(600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天 原股份(002386，未评级)。以及景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工中相关 标的包括：川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等。草酸行业 中，建议关注：华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 11 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orients ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 11 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：中国石化与中国航油实施重组，尿素 市场迎"开门红" 投资主线三：关注具有较强韧性的景气周期行业、以及库存完成去化迎来 底部反转。（1）磷化工：供给端受环保政策限制，磷矿及下游主要产品供给 扩张难，叠加下游新能源需求增长，供需格局趋紧。磷矿资源属性凸显，支撑 产业链景气度。建议关注：云天化、川恒股份、兴发集团、芭田股份。（2） 氟化工：二代制冷剂生产配额加速削减支撑盈利能力高位企稳，三代制冷剂生 产配额落地在即迎来景气修复，高端氟聚合物及氟精细化学品高速发展，萤石 需求资源属性增强价格阶段性高位。建议关注：金石资源（萤石资源储量、成 长性行业领先）、巨化股份（制冷剂龙头企业）、三美股份、永和股份、中欣 氟材。（3）涤纶长丝：库存去化至较低水平，充分受益下游纺织服装需求回 强于大市（维持评级） 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 3.82%，创业板指数上涨 3.89%， 沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，中信基础化工指数上涨 5.39%，申万化工指数上涨 5.03%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, coupled with growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a significant increase during the South American planting season, followed by a decline due to high North American inventories [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price at 3,282 RMB/ton by the end of December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][50]. - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.59% expected in 2025 [2][51]. Pesticides - The glyphosate market is expected to see price improvements in 2026, following a period of price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [4][49]. - The report highlights several key companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from rising prices and demand [8][49]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong potassium and phosphate resources, such as Yara International and Yun Tianhua, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the agricultural chemical sector [7][9].