当前科技方向忙着 "震荡蹦迪"，反观曾被贴上"傻大黑粗"标签的化工板块，近期亮点频出。 这波逆袭背后，藏着怎样的底层逻辑？ 01 告别无序内卷，供需破局 过去十年的化工行业，堪称 "内卷界天花板"：大家一门心思扩产能，你建100万吨装置，我就跟风上200万吨，结果低端产能严重过剩。 原材料涨价倒逼成本飙升，终端产品却只能含泪降价，最后陷入 "规模越大、亏得越狠"的死循环，妥妥的"赔本赚吆喝"。 如今风向变了！政策、行业、资源三方联手，硬是把供需格局拉回平衡线： 1、 政策层面： 工信部 "十五五"规划直接给盲目扩产踩刹车，新建项目审批升级，行业产能增速从双位数骤降到7%以下。 2、 行业层面： 长丝、 PTA等细分领域搞起"限产保价+价格同盟"，2025年并购事件同比涨40%，龙头企业终于掌握了定价话语权，先达股 份的烯草酮价格涨幅超135%，云天化磷肥出口赚足溢价，多氟多更是吃到了六氟磷酸锂涨价的"大蛋糕"。 以电池化学品为例，受涨价催化，板块持续上演趋势行情。自 9月以来板块指数涨幅超60%。 如今的化工，早已不是你印象中 "污染重、利润薄"的老样子，既是高端制造的"材料基石"，更是4万亿规模的"成长赛道 ...

Iron phosphate margins set to marginally improve in 2026. The booming energy storage market has been driving robust iron phosphate demand which we estimate could rise by 1.7mt in 2025 and another 1.2mt in 2026 (Ex 20). We expect the additional demand could be fulfilled by increased output, although producers had curtailed run rate amid severe oversupply. With supply surplus likely to sustain, we believe the recovery of iron phosphate prices may be limited. Nonetheless, we expect producers to increase run ra ...

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to recover in 2026, with a focus on resource products, anti-involution policies, and emerging industries as investment opportunities [3][27] - The industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Key sectors identified for investment include oil and gas, potassium fertilizer, phosphorus chemicals, fluorochemicals, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electronic resins, and certain anti-involution sectors [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn, with 2024 profits expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels [3] - The supply side has seen a decline in fixed asset investment since June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle [3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical sector [3] Demand Dynamics - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus [3] - Emerging demands from sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive growth in key chemical materials [3] - The domestic chemical industry is projected to increase its global market share as overseas capacities are cleared out [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment in 2026 include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Yara International, Yuntianhua, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Jiaao Environmental Protection, Zhuoyue New Energy, Shengquan Group, Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Xinhecheng [3] Sector Performance - The petrochemical sector's revenue decreased by 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit fell by 11.1% [24] - The basic chemical sector showed a recovery with a 1.9% increase in revenue and an 8.9% increase in net profit [24] - The oilfield services sector was the only sub-sector to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit during this period [24] Price Trends - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has shown a downward trend, with a reported decline of 11.5% from the beginning of the year [13] - The PPI for the chemical industry is expected to show marginal improvement in the second half of 2025, although it remains in a downward trend overall [16] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to promote a rebalancing of supply and demand in traditional chemical products, with various sectors responding positively to this policy [27] - Key meetings and documents from government bodies indicate a focus on maintaining growth and regulating new capacity in the petrochemical sector [27]

Core Insights - The China A500 Dividend Low Volatility Index (932422) has shown a slight increase of 0.14% as of November 14, 2025, with notable gains in major banks such as Bank of China (601988) up by 2.26% and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) up by 2.07% [1] Investment Environment - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need to focus on high-quality development, optimize investment structure, and enhance the investment environment to stimulate private investment and promote healthy investment growth [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the investment logic for bank stocks is shifting from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," making high-dividend bank stocks more attractive during economic stagnation [1] - With the M1 growth rate declining, major financial data has entered a downward cycle, attributed to weaker fiscal expansion and the fading of low base effects [1] ETF Performance - The China A500 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (561680) has a turnover rate of 1.8% and a transaction volume of 3.36 million yuan as of November 14, 2025 [2] - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 3.37% and an average monthly return rate of 3.37%, with a monthly profit probability of 78.57% [2] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 3.42%, with a recovery period of 30 days [2] Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China A500 Dividend Low Volatility Index account for 31.82% of the index, including Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and China Shenhua Energy (601088) [3] - The top ten stocks include major banks and companies, indicating a strong representation of the financial sector within the index [3][5]

| 002312 | 川发龙 | 3.09 | 6.92 | 9036.69 | 5.34 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 蟒 | | | | | | 300919 | 中伟股 | 5.61 | 4.01 | 8355.37 | 4.48 | | | 份 | | | | | | | 澄星股 | | | | | | 600078 | 份 | 6.14 | 19.90 | 7638.34 | 4.60 | | | 湖北宜 | | | | | | 000422 | | 4.16 | 6.68 | 7224.18 | 6.39 | | | 化 | | | | | | 300437 | 清水源 | 7.30 | 40.46 | 6879.12 | 5.37 | | 000155 | 川能动 | 5.62 | 3.99 | 5989.27 | 6.32 | | | 力 | | | | | | | 恒光股 | | | | | | 301 118 | 份 | 7.12 | 14.65 | 4978.24 | 11.30 | | 002556 | 辉隆股 | 2.90 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluorochemical sector has shown significant growth, with a 4.50% increase, leading the concept sectors in terms of gains, driven by strong performances from several key stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The fluorochemical concept sector increased by 4.50%, with 48 stocks rising, including notable gainers such as Kangpeng Technology and Taihe Technology, which hit the 20% limit up [1][2]. - Other stocks that reached the limit up include Furui Shares, Duofluor, and Shida Shenghua, while Xinzhou Bang, ST Lianchuang, and Hainan Mining also saw significant increases of 17.49%, 7.89%, and 7.64% respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The fluorochemical sector attracted a net inflow of 4.089 billion yuan, with 35 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2]. - Tianqi Materials led the net inflow with 1.749 billion yuan, followed by Duofluor, Xinzhou Bang, and Yuntianhua with net inflows of 961 million yuan, 324 million yuan, and 281 million yuan respectively [2]. - The net inflow ratios were highest for Furui Shares, Tianqi Materials, and Kangpeng Technology, with rates of 57.34%, 26.46%, and 15.31% respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong surge driven by price increases in lithium battery materials, with significant capital inflows into chemical ETFs over the past three days, totaling 9.61 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector's recent performance is attributed to four main factors: 1. The Producer Price Index (PPI) has turned positive for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also shown a slight increase [1] 2. The photovoltaic industry is focusing on self-discipline and reducing excess capacity, which is expected to stabilize the market [1] 3. Lithium battery material companies are experiencing a supply-demand mismatch due to increased storage demand and cautious expansion after a previous downturn, leading to rising prices [1] 4. Phosphate chemical products are benefiting from the positive outlook in lithium battery demand, with related companies performing well [2] Group 2: Market Indicators - As of November 13, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index has risen by 2.66%, with significant gains in individual stocks such as Xinzhou Bang (16.21%) and Tian Ci Materials (9.02%) [3] - The chemical ETF has increased by 2.48%, reflecting the overall performance of the chemical sector [3] Group 3: Major Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 44.83% of the index, including Wan Hua Chemical and Tian Ci Materials [4]

截至2025年11月13日10:07，中证石化产业指数上涨0.98%，成分股联泓新科一字涨停，藏格矿业上涨6.30%，盐湖股份上涨6.06%，兴发集团上涨5.80%，云 天化上涨3.52%。石化ETF(159731)上涨0.95%，最新价报0.85元。拉长时间看，截至2025年11月12日，石化ETF近1周累计上涨6.83%。 截至11月12日，石化ETF近6月净值上涨27.44%。从收益能力看，截至2025年11月12日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为6个 月，最长连涨涨幅为23.51%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.06%。截至2025年11月12日，石化ETF近6个月超越基准年化收益为6.31%。 石化ETF紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证石化产业指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、中国石油、盐湖股份、中国石 化、中国海油、巨化股份、藏格矿业、金发科技、宝丰能源和华鲁恒升，前十大权重股合计占比56.05%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, particularly focusing on the phosphate sector due to the anticipated growth in energy storage demand [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for an upward adjustment in the phosphate industry chain's prosperity expectations, driven by rapid growth in energy storage demand [2][3]. - The phosphate rock segment is identified as having the strongest supply rigidity, making it a key focus for investment opportunities [3][46]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for phosphate rock is expected to increase significantly due to the growth of energy storage applications, particularly lithium iron phosphate batteries [8][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Energy Storage Demand Impact - The growth in energy storage is expected to enhance the demand for phosphate, with global energy storage battery shipments projected to exceed 500 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 60% [8][12]. - It is estimated that the demand for lithium iron phosphate will lead to a requirement of about 1.2 million tons of lithium iron phosphate and approximately 4.4 million tons of phosphate rock in 2025 [15][39]. 2. Supply Side Dynamics - Concerns about a potential collapse in phosphate market prices due to new supply releases are addressed, with the report suggesting that the supply-demand balance will remain tight in the coming years [17][37]. - The report notes that the pricing power of phosphate rock suppliers is increasing, supported by steady demand from traditional agricultural needs and the rapid growth of new energy materials [25][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant phosphate rock production capacity, such as Xin Yang Feng, Yun Tu Holdings, and Xing Fa Group, which also have lithium iron phosphate production capabilities [3][46]. - It also highlights potential recovery opportunities in the lithium iron phosphate segment due to mismatches between demand growth and supply expansion [3][46].

Core Insights - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.94% on November 12, with Chengxing Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance Summary - Baiao Chemical (603360) saw a closing price of 34.59, with an increase of 4.22% and a trading volume of 182,100 shares, totaling a transaction value of 613 million yuan [1] - Chengxing Co. (600078) reported a significant decline of 10.00%, closing at 12.06 with a trading volume of 807,000 shares and a transaction value of 979 million yuan [2] - The overall agricultural chemical sector had a net outflow of 1.573 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.245 billion yuan [2][3] Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed a net inflow of 34.63 million yuan into Luohua Technology (600691), while retail investors had a net outflow of 28.86 million yuan [3] - Li Min Co. (002734) experienced a net inflow of 26.16 million yuan from major funds, but a net outflow of 34.85 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Baiao Chemical (603360) had a net inflow of 11.19 million yuan from major funds, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 8.34 million yuan [3]