1月20日，指数波动，化工板块大涨，龙头尽显风采。该道一声久违了，毕竟化工行业筑底已经三年 了！ 中国化工产品价格指数（CCPI）比2021年高点回落了近四成，处在近五年约20%出头的历史分位； 2025年前三季度，化学原料及制品行业利润率只有4%出头，石化化工上市公司毛利率、净利率都在过 去几年底部附近；过去七个季度，化工企业资本开支持续负增长，在建工程与固定资产合计增速降到 2018年以来最低。 强劲的价格张力正在出现。化工的周期回归几乎已成定局，不过这次能持续多久？这个问题决定了会有 多少人参与到这次回归之中。 化工新需求，决定了这一轮周期能走多远。 拐点是怎么被确认的 和很多过去的周期不同，这轮反弹并不是在价格已经明显抬升、行业利润成片回暖之后才开始，而是在 几个层面的边际变化叠加时出现的。 第一个信号来自个别品种的"率先转身"。盐湖股份是一个典型例子。 从全年数据看，2025年公司氯化钾产销量略有下滑：产量约490万吨，同比小跌1.2%，销量跌幅更大， 达18%左右；碳酸锂产量4.65万吨，同比增加16%，销量增加接近10%。价格上，同期氯化钾均价上涨 21.5%，电池级碳酸锂均价反而同比下降16. ...

证券研究报告 基础化工 黄磷供需向好且或受益于硫磺高价 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 20 日│中国内地 动态点评 基础化工 增持 (维持) | 张雄 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570523100003 | zhangxiong@htsc.com | | SFC No. BVN325 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 庄汀洲 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570519040002 | zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQZ933 | +(86) 10 5679 3939 | 行业走势图 (6) 8 22 35 49 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 受益于下游磷酸及终端新能源正极材料、电子级磷酸和精细磷酸盐等需求增 长，我们预计黄磷需求有望向好，且硫磺/硫酸高价下，热法磷酸较湿法磷 酸成本竞争力逐步凸显，或进一步推升热法工艺磷酸及黄磷需求；供给端由 于高能耗和安全环保等限制，国内严控黄磷新增产能（仅部分以产能置换等 形式 ...

东方证券发布研报称，看好化工行业在多重因素引导下，企业经营策略出现集体转向，带来的景气度修 复。从其中优选机会，该行相对看好两个维度：一是行业份额占比大、话语权高、有较大转变动力的龙 头企业；二是具有较大竞争优势、经营策略转变后盈利情况提升较显著的龙头企业。综上该行主要看好 五个方向：MDI、石化、磷化工、PVC和聚酯瓶片。 东方证券主要观点如下： 份额导向的预期正被转变 长期以来，份额导向一直是我国化工行业的主旋律，多数企业的竞争力构建也围绕成本优势展开。虽然 供给侧改革、环保核查、双碳目标等政策提高了行业的准入门槛，使得行业集中度实现了显著提升，但 并没有改变企业家们扩张发展的雄心。不过随着近几年快速发展，化工行业已开始逐渐触及到份额的边 界。一方面是内部政策调整，通过央国企"一利五率"、"反内卷"等政策限制行业低质量扩张。另一方是 外部越来越频发的反倾销、反补贴调查，提高了对外扩张份额的难度。该行认为这些变化传达给行业与 企业家的信号就是以往份额导向的预期必须做出改变。 该行认为行业优选标准主要有两条：扩张约束强度、龙头优势深度。扩张约束越强，企业对于未来份额 驱动的预期就越低，也越有可能调整经营策略， ...

7.63%，单吨毛利为670.38元，上周为224.31元。展望后市，预计短期内环氧丙烷市场将延续供需偏紧 下的偏强运行。 行业动态 本周（01.12-01.18）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中，共有49个品种价格上涨，20个品种价格下跌，31个 品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中49%的产品月均价环比上涨，39%的产品月均价环比下跌12%的产品月均 价环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是环氧丙烷（华东）、醋酐（华东）、煤焦油（山西）、丙酮 （华东）、WTI原油；周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是NYMEX天然气、硝酸(华东地区)、R22（巨化）、 乙烯（东南亚CFR）、TDI（华东）。 本周（01.12-01.18）国际油价上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于59.44美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅0.54%布伦特原 油期货价格收于63.76美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅0.66%。宏观方面，美国财政部15日宣布对伊朗实施新制 裁。美媒报道称，美国正向中东地区增派航母等，引发地区局势持续紧张。伊朗外长阿拉格齐15日就伊 朗骚乱致信联合国秘书长古特雷斯，谴责美国官员的煽动和威胁性言论供应方面，根据EIA数据，截至 1月9日当周，美国原油日均产量1,3 ...

2026年1月16日 1月15日标的指数成份股涨跌幅TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 車日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 688516 SH | 奥特维 | 8.15 | 32.30 | 3.80 | | 2 | 000338.SZ | 潍柴动力 | 4.18 | 17.44 | 3.62 | | 3 | 605098.SH | 行动教育 | 4.01 | 11.71 | 5.02 | | 4 | 000933.SZ | 神火股份 | 3.42 | 14.63 | 1.63 | | 5 | 603833.SH | 欧派家居 | 3.33 | 9.67 | 6.85 | | 6 | 600873.SH | 梅花生物 | 3.15 | 3.46 | 4.21 | | 7 | 002091.SZ | 江苏国泰 | 3.14 | 1.99 | 5.26 | | 8 | 605599.SH | 菜自股 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is leading the market gains, with the basic chemical sector showing the highest increase among 30 CITIC primary industries, reflecting a 0.99% rise in the chemical ETF (516020) [1] - Key stocks in the sector include rubber additives and phosphorus chemicals, with notable performances from Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit, and Hongda Co., which rose over 5% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment indicates a strong rebound in the chemical sector, driven by significant orders from leading lithium battery manufacturers, with expectations of substantial growth in lithium battery production capacity by 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Industry analysts predict that the chemical industry's profitability is likely to recover in 2026 after experiencing a downturn in 2025, with a new phase of supply-demand rebalancing beginning [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on the sector's rebound [3] - The ETF includes exposure to various themes such as AI computing, anti-involution policies, and new energy, which are expected to drive growth in the chemical sector [3]

化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金（013527）关注化工板块投资机遇。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 2026年1月15日早盘，化工原料、精细化工等板块拉升，截至10:36，中证细分化工产业主题指数强势上 涨2.11%，成分股宏达股份上涨8.95%，广东宏大上涨6.06%，云天化上涨4.64%，多氟多，博源化工等 个股跟涨。 招商证券研报表示，2021年以来，受化工产品价格高景气度影响，石化和化工企业规划较多资本开支， 开启新一轮产能扩张。2022年以来随着新增产能陆续投放，叠加原油价格自高位回落，大部分化工产品 价格持续下跌，造成部分化工产品价格持续下跌，国内企业为了争夺市场份额，实行以价换量策略，导 致整体盈利水平下降。2024年以来，多数化工品价格底部盘整，企业盈利水平仍处于承压状态，随着后 续稳增长工作方案的出台，招商证券认为部分落后产能有望被淘汰，行业整体供需格局将发生边际改 善，产品盈利能力有望提高。 国海证券指出，反内卷政策有望重估中国化工行业，全球化工行业产能扩张预计将大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) has seen significant inflows and performance, reflecting a positive outlook for the chemical industry as it undergoes structural changes and optimization [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of January 14, the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) reached a new high with a total size of 843 million yuan and 735 million shares outstanding [2]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, accumulating a total of 233 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of the 13% export tax rebate on PVC powder starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to increase export costs by approximately 75 USD per ton. This may lead to a short-term surge in exports and a long-term shift towards high-value products and overseas capacity [2]. - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low point, with a shift from capacity expansion to optimization driven by "anti-involution" policies. Key sectors such as coal chemical, organic silicon, and pesticides are expected to see a supply-demand reversal [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Leading companies in the chemical sector are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing exit of low-efficiency capacity and the transition to high-value products, with potential profit recovery expected [3]. - Sub-industries with resource attributes or technical barriers, such as phosphorus chemicals and refrigerants, may present opportunities for value reassessment [3].

农化制品板块走强，东方铁塔涨超6%盘中创新高，联化科技、潞化科技、百傲化学涨超5%，云天化、 川恒股份跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a significant increase, reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.56% and closing up by 0.89% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Kasei Bio, which surged by 12.54%, and Salt Lake Co., which rose by 7.13%, among others [1][2] - Recent capital inflow into the chemical sector has been strong, with the chemical ETF accumulating a net subscription of 560 million yuan over the last five trading days and over 910 million yuan in the last ten days [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [3] - The chemical industry is expected to undergo a revaluation, as its industry position and profit levels do not align, with potential recovery in profitability anticipated [3] - The chemical sector is at a new starting point of supply-demand rebalancing, influenced by policies aimed at reshaping competition and advancements in new production capabilities [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, providing an opportunity for investors to capitalize on strong performers [4] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds, enhancing investment efficiency in the chemical sector [4]