| | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | 60分 日 | 周月 | ■客 | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 | 圆线 丁旦 九转 | 10 (2) | 4. ETF (1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.914 | | | | 516020[化工ETF] 11:30 价 0.908 涨跌 0.008(0.89%) 均价 0.906 成交量 0 IOPV 0.9086 | | | | 2026/01/13 | | | | +0.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 11:30:05 交易中 | | | | 0.907 | | | | | | | | | 0.78% | 净值走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 出分 | 3.77% 120日 | | | 0.900 | | | | | | | | | 0.00% | 5日 | -1.09% 250日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20日 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 多项产品出口退税政策调整，不改中国产 业竞争优势 ⚫ 炼化行业我们推荐相关龙头企业中国石化(600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买 入)、恒力石化(600346，买入)；同时，我们持续看好化工各子行业景气复苏机遇， 如 MDI 龙头：万华化学(600309，买入) ；PVC 行业，相关企业包括：中泰化学 (002092，未评级)、新疆天业(600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天 原股份(002386，未评级)。以及景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工中相关 标的包括：川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等。草酸行业 中，建议关注：华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 11 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orients ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 11 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：中国石化与中国航油实施重组，尿素 市场迎"开门红" 投资主线三：关注具有较强韧性的景气周期行业、以及库存完成去化迎来 底部反转。（1）磷化工：供给端受环保政策限制，磷矿及下游主要产品供给 扩张难，叠加下游新能源需求增长，供需格局趋紧。磷矿资源属性凸显，支撑 产业链景气度。建议关注：云天化、川恒股份、兴发集团、芭田股份。（2） 氟化工：二代制冷剂生产配额加速削减支撑盈利能力高位企稳，三代制冷剂生 产配额落地在即迎来景气修复，高端氟聚合物及氟精细化学品高速发展，萤石 需求资源属性增强价格阶段性高位。建议关注：金石资源（萤石资源储量、成 长性行业领先）、巨化股份（制冷剂龙头企业）、三美股份、永和股份、中欣 氟材。（3）涤纶长丝：库存去化至较低水平，充分受益下游纺织服装需求回 强于大市（维持评级） 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 3.82%，创业板指数上涨 3.89%， 沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，中信基础化工指数上涨 5.39%，申万化工指数上涨 5.03%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, coupled with growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a significant increase during the South American planting season, followed by a decline due to high North American inventories [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price at 3,282 RMB/ton by the end of December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][50]. - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.59% expected in 2025 [2][51]. Pesticides - The glyphosate market is expected to see price improvements in 2026, following a period of price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [4][49]. - The report highlights several key companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from rising prices and demand [8][49]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong potassium and phosphate resources, such as Yara International and Yun Tianhua, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the agricultural chemical sector [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, alongside growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate. The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining elevated [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a peak during the South American planting season and a subsequent decline due to high North American inventories. The report anticipates a recovery in glyphosate prices in 2026 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to stabilize around 3,100-3,200 CNY/ton, with expectations of maintaining high inventory levels for food security [24][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over three years. The report highlights the increasing demand from lithium battery applications [2][50]. - Phosphate chemical prices have shown upward trends for products like lithium iron phosphate, while glyphosate prices have decreased significantly [49][51]. Pesticides - The report suggests a potential recovery in the pesticide sector, particularly for glyphosate and its derivatives, as the industry undergoes restructuring to improve profitability [4][8]. - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted as key players in the pesticide market, with recommendations for investment [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Yuntianhua's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% on January 8, 2025, while the company has experienced a year-to-date increase of 3.86% [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 8, 2025, Yuntianhua's stock price is reported at 34.70 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 632.58 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 2.60% over the last five trading days, 12.48% over the last 20 days, and 19.94% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yuntianhua achieved a revenue of 375.99 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.89% to 47.29 billion CNY [2]. Group 3: Business Overview - Yuntianhua, established on July 2, 1997, and listed on July 9, 1997, is primarily engaged in the production of fertilizers, phosphate mining, and organic chemicals [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes phosphate fertilizers (27.99%), commodity grains (19.87%), compound fertilizers (12.51%), and urea (10.28%), among others [2]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Yuntianhua had 106,200 shareholders, a decrease of 1.03% from the previous period, with an average of 17,165 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.04% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 121 million shares, a decrease of 10.9 million shares from the previous period [3].

2026年1月7日 1月6日标的指数成份股涨跌幅TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 更日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 688516.SH | 奥特维 | 8.42 | 18.34 | 4.26 | | 2 | 002532.SZ | 天山铝业 | 7.75 | 12.61 | 2.35 | | 3 | 002083.SZ | 学日股份 | 7.41 | 18.15 | 1.10 | | 4 | 600096.SH | 云天化 | 5.65 | 6.91 | 4.73 | | 5 | 002895.SZ | 川恒股份 | 5.17 | 7.58 | 3.68 | | 6 | 000933.SZ | 神火股份 | 4.64 | 8.45 | 1.74 | | 7 | 605599 SH | 菜自股份 | 3.47 | 7.57 | 4.23 | | 8 | 000928.SZ | 中钢国际 | ...

| 600096 | 云天化 | 5.65 | 4.23 | 6879.05 | 2.54 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000422 | 湖北宜 | 3.85 | 5.83 | 4722.63 | 5.13 | | | 化 | | | | | | 002145 | 钛能化 | 4.88 | 2.77 | 4322.91 | 8.22 | | | 学 | | | | | | 603906 | 龙蟠科 | 2.70 | 7.54 | 3482.90 | 3.93 | | | 技 | | | | | | 300505 | 川金诺 | 4.23 | 11.64 | 3298.14 | 5.51 | | 002237 | 恒邦股 | 2.61 | 4.59 | 3040.19 | 3.95 | | | 份 | | | | | | 603993 | 洛阳钼 业 | 6.07 | 1.56 | 2625.44 | 0.45 | | | 鲁西化 | | | | | | 000830 | 工 | 7.63 | 2.18 | 2244.90 | 3.12 | | 60038 ...

证券之星消息，1月6日农化制品板块较上一交易日上涨4.04%，潞化科技领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4083.67，上涨1.5%。深证成指报收于14022.55，上涨1.4%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600691 | 路化科技 | 3.04 | 10.14% | | 38.04万 | | 1.13亿 | | 600078 | 澄星股份 | 66'01 | 10.01% | | 43.05万 | | 4.53亿 | | 001231 | 农心科技 | 30.17 | 9.99% | | 11.81万 | | 3.54亿 | | 600141 | 兴发集团 | 37.50 | 8.89% | | 38.58万 | | 14.06亿 | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | 33.28 | 6.29% | | 27.58万 | | 9.03亿 | | 600596 | 新安股份 | 12.34 | 6.29% | | 52 ...