Workflow
苹果一季报前瞻:不确定性席卷,营收前景承压

Core Viewpoint - Apple is set to release its Q1 2025 earnings report, with a focus on revenue from hardware and software services amid rising trade policy uncertainties [2] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts expect Apple to achieve revenue of $94.06 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.64%, with earnings per share projected at $1.606, up 4.99% year-on-year [4] - Hardware business accounts for approximately 80% of total revenue, with iPhone being the primary revenue source, expected to generate around $47.8 billion in Q1 2025, a 4% increase year-on-year [4][5] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a gross margin of over 47% for Q1 2025, potentially exceeding the company's previous guidance of 46.5%-47.5% [6] Group 2: iPhone Sales and Market Challenges - Apple shipped 57.9 million iPhones in Q1 2025, a 10% increase from 52.6 million units in the same period last year [5] - The growth in iPhone revenue is driven by a 10% increase in sales, influenced by the release of iPhone 16e and preemptive demand due to policy uncertainties [5] - Apple faces challenges in the Chinese market, with a 9% year-on-year decline in smartphone shipments, resulting in a market share drop to 13.7% [5] Group 3: Software Services Growth - Apple's services revenue is expected to grow by 11% year-on-year to $26.5 billion in Q1 2025, slightly below the market consensus of $26.7 billion [8] - The App Store revenue is projected to increase by approximately 13%, while subscription services and Apple Pay are expected to see a combined revenue growth of 44% [8] - The gross margin for Apple's services segment has improved to 75%, contributing to 34% of the company's gross profit despite only accounting for about 21% of total revenue [8]