北京写字楼市场2025年第二季度展望及第一季度回顾

Market Overview - The Beijing Grade A office market is facing significant challenges despite ongoing government support for real estate and industry, with rental prices expected to continue declining in Q2 2025 due to global economic uncertainties and corporate strategic contractions [1][8] - The average effective rent for Grade A offices in Beijing fell by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter to 246 RMB per square meter, nearing historical lows, while the vacancy rate reached 17.9%, indicating persistent market weakness [10][8] Demand Dynamics - The demand structure is shifting, with technology sectors, particularly in Zhongguancun, showing resilience due to supportive policies for AI and integrated circuits, leading to new leasing and expansion needs from leading tech firms [2][8] - Financial institutions are also increasing their leasing demands as capital market reforms deepen, while professional services, especially domestic law firms, are seeking office upgrades and expansions [2][8] - Foreign companies remain cautious in their leasing strategies due to geopolitical uncertainties, leading to continued pressure on traditional foreign business districts like Guomao and Yansha [2][8] Transaction Market - The core business district's premium office assets have entered a value investment range, with some benchmark projects seeing price corrections of up to 40% from peak levels, attracting self-use buyers [3][27] - In Q1 2025, the Beijing office transaction market saw a structural recovery with 8 major transactions totaling 7.8 billion RMB, predominantly driven by self-use buyers, who accounted for 75% of the transaction count and 97% of the transaction value [27][29] Recommendations for Tenants - Tenants are advised to assess their needs and existing leases promptly, leveraging the current market conditions to negotiate more flexible terms, such as extended rent-free periods and renovation subsidies [4][5] - Companies should consider optimizing their office space by adopting hybrid models and utilizing technology to enhance operational efficiency [15][4] Recommendations for Owners - Property owners should focus on core industries like TMT and finance, offering flexible leasing terms to attract high-growth tenants [5][8] - With a new supply peak expected in 2026, proactive tenant negotiations and customized service offerings are recommended to build long-term partnerships [5][8] Macro Environment - Despite positive signals from central government policies, the short-term outlook for the Beijing office market remains weak, with rising vacancy rates and declining rents expected to persist [8][10] - In the medium to long term, policy benefits are anticipated to gradually support recovery in technology and consumer-driven sectors, particularly in areas like Zhongguancun [8][10]