Barclays(US:BCS) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-04-30 04:19Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB bond market has shown resilience despite global market volatility, driven by strong issuance growth and favorable conditions for private sector borrowers [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds is expected to reach a peak of 16,124 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 26% increase from 2023 [2]. - In Q1 2025, the issuance scale is projected to exceed 3,780 billion RMB, marking a 53.7% year-on-year growth compared to Q1 2023 [2]. - The market has seen a trend towards longer maturities, with notable issuances such as Baidu's 10 billion RMB bond and Hong Kong Airport Authority's 10 and 30-year bonds [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Factors - The Chinese Ministry of Finance has diversified its supply, establishing benchmarks in the market, including the issuance of green sovereign bonds [2][3]. - The liquidity and investor base in the offshore RMB market have deepened, providing better market access and competitive pricing for private issuers [2][3]. - Structural innovations have emerged, such as the issuance of green bonds backed by multilateral institutions, indicating a growing trend in the market [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Despite recent market volatility, the secondary market for offshore RMB bonds remains relatively strong, with trading prices tightening by 15-20 basis points since early April [5][6]. - High-quality offshore RMB bonds are seen as scarce, enhancing their value in a moderately loose macroeconomic environment [6]. - Investor sentiment is cautious, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach before making further allocations [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The issuance volume of offshore RMB bonds is expected to remain stable in the short term, influenced by global volatility and market re-pricing [6]. - There is optimism for medium to long-term recovery in demand and supply, driven by potential shifts in investor allocations from US Treasuries to RMB assets [6]. - Recommendations for further development of the offshore RMB market include enhancing cross-currency swaps and derivative markets, and implementing proactive macroeconomic policies [7].