Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million yuan, down 3.3% year-over-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of new factory capacity. The company is expected to benefit from capacity improvements in the future, with new customer acquisition and increased market share from existing clients continuing to strengthen its competitive advantage, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 49 million pairs of sports shoes, up 8.24% year-over-year, with an average price of 109 yuan per pair, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year. The volume growth is attributed to strategic customer expansion with brands like Adidas, New Balance, and On, which is expected to contribute to further growth in Q2 2025 [2]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year to 14.2%, and the gross profit margin fell by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9%, mainly due to the initial efficiency ramp-up of the new factory. The workforce increased to 184,000 employees, a rise of 17.0% year-over-year [2]. - The company reported inventory of 3.67 billion yuan, up 12.5% year-over-year, and accounts receivable of 3.31 billion yuan, up 15.3% year-over-year, primarily due to inventory buildup related to factory capacity ramp-up and increased sales collections, resulting in a net cash inflow from operating activities of 1.21 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-over-year [2]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - To meet capacity demands, the company acquired 100% stakes in three Vietnamese footwear companies for 23.038 million yuan, 28.250 million yuan, and 16.113 million yuan, respectively, aimed at optimizing production resources for shoe uppers. These companies will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements starting from Q1 2025, and are expected to enhance production capacity synergy within 1-2 years, thereby increasing the company's market share in global footwear manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027 at 4.32 billion yuan, 4.95 billion yuan, and 5.61 billion yuan, respectively. Based on the average PE ratio of comparable companies at 12.7 times for 2025, and considering the potential for continued customer base expansion and solid industry leadership, a target PE of 21.8 times is assigned for 2025, resulting in a target price of 80.82 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [4].
华利集团(300979)：产能爬坡扰动盈利 新客户放量显著