丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨华利集团（300979.SZ） [Table_Title] 华利集团 2025 年业绩快报点评： Q4 净利率未 能延续修复，全年累计分红比例提至 76.4% 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望来看：短期，老客低基数下预计今年小幅修复，新客贡献弹性增量，产能优化调配、新厂 爬坡下利润率有望改善。中期，老客调整企稳叠加（次)新客户持续放量有望驱动新一轮成长。 预计公司 2026/2027 年归母净利润为 35.5/39.7 亿元，同比+11%/+12%，对应 PE 为 15/14X， 76%分红比例假设下 2026 年股息率为约 5%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 华利集团（300979.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 华利集团 2025 2] 年业绩快报点评：Q4 净利率未 能延续修复，全年累计分红比 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 22 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：Lululemon 发布 FY2025 年报，Q4 表现超公司预期 【本周专题】 Lululemon FY2025Q4 营收同比增长 1%，经营表现超公司预期。根据 公司披露，FY2025Q4 营收同比增长 1%至 36 亿美元（按固定汇率口径同 比持平），其中美洲业务营收同比下降 4%（按固定汇率口径下降 5%）， 国际业务营收同比增长 17%（按固定汇率口径增长 14%）。毛利同比下降 8%至 20 亿美元，毛利率同比下降 5.5pcts 至 54.9%，经营利润同比下降 22%至 8.1 亿美元，经营利润率同比下降 6.6pcts 至 22.3%。FY2025 全 财年公司营收同比增长 5%至 111 亿美元，经营利润同比下降 12%至 22 亿美元，经营利润率同比下降 3.8pcts 至 19.9%。展望 FY2026Q1 公司预 计营收为 24~24.3 亿美元，同比增长 1%~3%，FY2026 公司预计营收为 113.5~115 亿美元，同比增长 2%~4%。 分地区看： 【本周观点】 运动 ...

| 分析师： [Tabl | 糜韩杰 | 分析师： | 左琴琴 | 分析师： | 董建芳 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260521050001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525060002 | | | SFC CE.no: BPH764 | | SFC CE.no: BSE791 | | | | | 021-38003650 | | 021-38003540 | | | | | mihanjie@gf.com.cn | | zuoqinqin@gf.com.cn | | dongjianfang@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，董建芳并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 相关研究 [Table_Report ： ] [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2026 年 3 月 20 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织服 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.98 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.5% to 3.21 billion yuan [2][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.283 billion yuan, which reflects an increase in the dividend payout ratio to 76% for 2025 [5] - The company experienced a decline in profit due to the ramp-up phase of new factories and adjustments in production capacity, but profitability is expected to recover as new customer orders increase and old customer orders stabilize [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 24.006 billion yuan, 2025E at 24.980 billion yuan, 2026E at 27.018 billion yuan, and 2027E at 29.545 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.4%, 4.1%, 8.2%, and 9.4% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.84 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 3.21 billion yuan in 2025E, and then increasing to 3.717 billion yuan in 2026E and 4.238 billion yuan in 2027E [3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.29 yuan in 2024, dropping to 2.75 yuan in 2025E, and then recovering to 3.18 yuan in 2026E and 3.63 yuan in 2027E [3] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s sales volume for athletic shoes in 2025 was 227 million pairs, a year-on-year increase of 1.59%, with an average selling price of approximately 110 yuan, reflecting a 2.4% increase [5] - The company faced challenges in Q4 2025, with a revenue decline of 3% and a net profit drop of 22.7% compared to the previous year [5] - The company has successfully ramped up production in three new factories, contributing to profitability despite the overall pressure on margins [5]

Market Review - The A-share textile and apparel index has underperformed the broader market since March, with brand apparel performing better than textile manufacturing, showing declines of -1.8% and -3.2% respectively. The Hong Kong textile and apparel index has dropped by 10.9% during the same period [1][14]. Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in January-February grew by 10.4% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in growth compared to previous months. The strong performance in February was attributed to the Spring Festival season, with sports retailer BaoSheng International reporting an 81.5% increase in operating income [2]. - International brand forecasts indicate Adidas expects high single-digit revenue growth by 2026, while PUMA anticipates a mid-single-digit decline. Bloomberg's projections for Nike suggest a 2.2% revenue increase, while Converse and Vans are expected to decline by 13.6% and 0.5% respectively. HOKA and UGG are projected to grow by 11.8% and 3.1%, while Uniqlo expects a 13.5% increase [2]. - E-commerce growth rebounded in January-February, driven by strong consumer demand during the Spring Festival. Outdoor apparel led growth with categories like sportswear, outdoor wear, and leisurewear showing year-on-year increases of 11%, 25%, and 10% respectively [2]. - The fan growth on Xiaohongshu for sports and outdoor brands is notable, with Adidas, Li Ning, and Anta leading with growth rates of 27.0%, 22.6%, and 18.8% respectively [2]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, Vietnam's textile exports increased by 1.2% year-on-year in January-February, while China's textile, apparel, and footwear exports rose by 20.5%, 14.8%, and 6.1% respectively. The PMI for Indonesia, India, and Vietnam has also shown increases [3]. - Domestic cotton prices have risen by 8.5% to 16,884 RMB/ton, while foreign cotton prices have decreased by 0.1% to 12,962 RMB/ton. Wool prices have surged by 24.6% to 12.72 USD/kg, marking a significant increase from last year's lows [3]. - In February, Taiwanese companies faced revenue pressure due to reduced working days during the Lunar New Year, but the outlook remains optimistic with clear growth momentum. Companies like Zhiqiang and Ruhong reported revenue declines of 24.9% and 7.4% respectively, while others like Weihong and Yuqi showed positive growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands with high domestic demand and high dividend yields, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments. Brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning are highlighted for their strong sales recovery in Q1, while home textile leader Luolai Life and luxury brand Jiangnan Buyi are also recommended [7]. - In textile manufacturing, attention is drawn to companies benefiting from rising raw material prices and high order visibility. Companies like Bailong Oriental and Xin'ao are expected to perform well due to their strong order books and low-cost raw material inventories [8].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates that 2026 is expected to be a turning point for consumption in the textile and apparel industry, focusing on areas with potential for penetration growth [4][6] - In the first two months of 2026, both domestic consumption and export of textiles and apparel exceeded expectations, suggesting a favorable window for low-positioned investments in the sector [5][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in the industry chain, with upstream prices rising, midstream facing pressure, and downstream showing differentiation [5][6] Textile Manufacturing Insights - The report highlights a strong cycle in textile manufacturing post-industry reshuffling, with stronger cycles leading to stronger growth [6] - Upstream price increases are noted, particularly for Australian wool and cotton, with significant price elasticity observed due to production cuts and demand recovery [5][6] - Midstream sports manufacturing is under short-term pressure but is expected to see new growth in the medium to long term, influenced by the recovery of key clients like Nike [5][6] Apparel and Home Textiles Trends - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for apparel and home textiles, emphasizing the need to explore market penetration opportunities [6] - The high-performance outdoor apparel market is highlighted as having low penetration and significant growth potential, with a market size of 102.7 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] - The report also notes a correlation between high-end apparel demand and travel/business activities, suggesting a recovery in mid-to-high-end apparel consumption [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality wool spinning companies and companies with global supply chains that have sufficient low-cost materials, such as Baolong Oriental [5][6] - For midstream sports manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Yuanyuan Group are recommended, with a watch on the recovery pace of Nike [5][6] - The report suggests that companies in the sleep economy, such as Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles, are well-positioned to benefit from the growing market for innovative home textile products [5][6] Cotton Market Analysis - The report predicts a reduction in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season, which may lead to a decrease in inventory-to-consumption ratios, potentially driving cotton prices higher [40][45] - The report notes that the cotton market is currently experiencing a price bottom, with external cotton prices expected to rebound due to significant price differentials [46][48] Brand Recovery Pathways - The report outlines a two-phase recovery pathway for brands, emphasizing the importance of inventory clearance as a precursor to a new operational cycle [64][66] - The first phase involves clearing inventory across all channels, while the second phase sees a recovery in retail sales and expansion of franchise operations, leading to increased profitability [66]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 24.98 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.06%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 16.50% to 3.21 billion yuan [8] - The fourth quarter saw a decline in both orders and profitability, primarily due to a drop in orders from some existing clients and the impact of new factories ramping up production [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares for 2025, resulting in a total payout ratio of 76.4%, up from 69.9% in 2024, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 20.11 billion yuan in 2023, 24.00 billion yuan in 2024, 24.98 billion yuan in 2025, 26.86 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.38 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.20 billion yuan in 2023, 3.84 billion yuan in 2024, 3.21 billion yuan in 2025, 3.54 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.06 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.74 yuan in 2023, 3.29 yuan in 2024, 2.75 yuan in 2025, 3.04 yuan in 2026, and 3.48 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 47.14 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 55.01 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently 17.19, projected to decrease to 13.56 by 2027 [1][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 24.98 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.06%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.50% to 3.21 billion yuan [8] - The fourth quarter saw a decline in both orders and profitability, primarily due to a drop in orders from some existing clients and the impact of new factories ramping up production [8] - The company is expected to distribute a cash dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares for 2025, resulting in a total payout ratio of 76.4%, up from 69.9% in 2024, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 20.11 billion yuan in 2023, 24.00 billion yuan in 2024, 24.98 billion yuan in 2025, 26.86 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.38 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.20 billion yuan in 2023, 3.84 billion yuan in 2024, 3.21 billion yuan in 2025, 3.54 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.06 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.74 yuan in 2023, 3.29 yuan in 2024, 2.75 yuan in 2025, 3.04 yuan in 2026, and 3.48 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 17.19 in 2023, 14.32 in 2024, 17.16 in 2025, 15.53 in 2026, and 13.56 in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies in the textile and apparel industry, particularly highlighting the potential for growth in upstream and sports segments [16][20]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.6% from March 9 to March 13, 2026, underperforming the SW All A index by 0.1 percentage points [3][4]. - Upstream raw material prices are rising, which is expected to improve the operational performance of upstream companies. Cotton prices increased by 1.1% to 16,753 RMB/ton, while Australian wool prices rose by 2.8% to 1,272 USD/ton [10][42]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the sports apparel sector, driven by national policies promoting sports and health, as highlighted during the recent national congress [12]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile upstream is expected to benefit from rising raw material prices, with cotton and wool prices showing significant increases. This is anticipated to enhance the operational performance of upstream companies [10][11]. - Companies like Huayi Group reported a revenue increase of 4.1% to 249.8 billion RMB, but a net profit decline of 16.5% due to production capacity adjustments [11][14]. - Jian Sheng Group's performance exceeded expectations with a 51% increase in non-net profit for Q4 2025, driven by its seamless business segment [18][19]. Apparel Sector - The report notes a strong focus on sports during the national congress, indicating a favorable environment for sports apparel companies. Brands such as Li Ning and Anta are recommended for investment [12][13]. - The women's apparel segment is expected to rebound, with companies like Ge Li Si and Xin He reporting significant profit improvements [13]. - The report suggests monitoring the performance of major brands as they release annual reports, anticipating a divergence in performance among brands [12]. Industry Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 50.1 trillion RMB in 2025, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, with the apparel and textile category growing by 3.2% [31]. - Exports of textiles and apparel saw a significant increase, with February 2026 exports amounting to 22.44 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 73.4% [35][36]. - The report highlights the ongoing increase in cotton and wool prices, which are expected to support the profitability of textile manufacturers [40][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and others, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2026 [10][31][33]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a rebound in exports, with China's apparel and accessories export value reaching $24.87 billion in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [2][25]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in orders for apparel manufacturing companies in 2026, with expectations of a recovery in profit quality [1][15]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sportswear segment, projecting steady growth in Q1 2026 due to effective marketing strategies and product launches [3][31]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - In February 2026, major apparel manufacturers reported revenue declines, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group experiencing year-on-year decreases of 12.3%, 7.4%, and 5.9% respectively [1][15]. - The overall performance of apparel manufacturing is expected to remain flat in Q4 2025, with short-term profit margins under pressure due to order fluctuations and capacity ramp-up [1][15]. Weekly Insights - The sportswear segment is expected to maintain strong operational resilience, with companies like Li Ning and Anta Sports projected to see profit growth in 2026 [3][31]. - The report recommends focusing on quality stocks in the brand apparel sector, such as Bi Yin Le Fen and Hai Lan Zhi Jia, which are expected to show robust growth [32]. Industry Trends - The textile and apparel sector is witnessing a healthy inventory situation, with some brands showing strong sales performance, indicating potential for improved downstream orders [26][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring international trade relations and consumer behavior, which could impact order trends for manufacturers [33]. Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - Li Ning: Expected net profit growth of 5.8% in 2026, with a PE ratio of 15 [31]. - Anta Sports: Projected net profit growth of 6.4% in 2026, with a PE ratio of 14 [31]. - Shenzhou International: Valued at a PE of 10 for 2026 [33]. - Wei Xing Co.: Recommended for its strong order trends, with a PE of 17 [33].