小非农+GDP+通胀三连击！特朗普关税“反噬”初现？

Economic Data Release - The U.S. is set to release key economic data that may impact market dynamics, including April ADP employment numbers, Q1 GDP, and March PCE [1] - The consensus expectation is for April ADP employment growth to decrease from 155,000 to 115,000 [2] Labor Market Insights - The JOLTS job openings fell to 7.19 million, the lowest since September 2020, indicating weakened labor demand due to employers postponing spending plans [2] - Layoffs in March doubled compared to the previous year, largely due to government efficiency actions [2] GDP Forecasts - The preliminary estimate for Q1 GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.3%, the slowest since early 2022, with some economists predicting a contraction of up to 2.4% [4] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened to a record $162 billion in March, indicating significant economic impact from trade dynamics [3][4] Inflation Indicators - The median forecast for March core PCE is a month-over-month increase of 0.08%, down from 0.4% in February, while overall PCE is expected to decrease by 0.1% [5][6] - Despite the anticipated slowdown in inflation, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may exacerbate price pressures [7] Market Reactions - A potential unexpected contraction in the U.S. economy could heighten recession fears and influence aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - The market remains cautious ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll data, limiting directional bets [8]