Amazon(US:AMZN) 智通财经网·2025-04-30 06:24Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney warns that escalating tariffs pose a significant threat to Amazon's retail business, forcing the company to choose between "protecting profits" and "maintaining market share" [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Amazon - Rising tariff costs are creating substantial challenges for Amazon, which is heavily reliant on imported goods [1] - Amazon may have to either absorb tariff costs or pass them onto consumers, risking market share if prices are raised [1] - A potential 30% increase in retail prices due to tariffs could lead to a contraction in demand across Amazon's diverse customer base [1] Group 2: Strategic Response - Despite short-term pressures, Amazon is likely to maintain its established strategy, focusing on supply chain optimization rather than engaging in political battles [2] - Management may prioritize market share to avoid repeating the slowdown in Prime membership growth experienced in 2019 due to price increases [2] - Amazon is expected to continue its significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, as cutting capital expenditures could jeopardize its long-term competitiveness in AI technologies [2] Group 3: Key Financial Indicators - Upcoming earnings reports will focus on three critical indicators: the impact of tariff costs, Prime membership growth, and the resilience of AWS profitability [2] - Management's disclosure regarding tariff cost impacts and potential supplier negotiations will be crucial for cost control and profit levels [2] - The performance of AWS is vital for offsetting pressures from the retail segment, influencing overall financial performance and strategic direction [2]