周大生(002867)：金价高企抑制终端动销、业绩阶段性承压 加速推进品牌矩阵

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with significant drops in Q4 and Q1 2025, primarily due to high gold prices suppressing consumer demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 13.89 billion and 1.01 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 14.73% and 23.25% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 3.083 billion and 155 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 18.79% and 29.69% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit were 2.673 billion and 252 million yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 47.28% and 26.12% [1]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was 701 million yuan, down 11.25% year-on-year [1]. Business Analysis - High gold prices have negatively impacted consumer demand, particularly for plain gold products, while embedded products showed slight growth and silver jewelry performed well [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue from plain gold and embedded products was 128 million and 2.115 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +0.15% and -53.15%, respectively [2]. - Revenue from silver jewelry and other auxiliary products was 150 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.5% [2]. - Franchise business revenue declined significantly due to low inventory replenishment willingness among customers, while self-operated and e-commerce segments benefited from improved product mix and profit margins [2]. - E-commerce revenue in Q1 2025 was 534 million yuan, down 6.71% year-on-year, while self-operated offline revenue was 527 million yuan, down 16.29% year-on-year [2]. - Franchise revenue in Q1 2025 was 1.584 billion yuan, down 58.63% year-on-year, with gold and embedded product revenues of 1.28 billion and 56 million yuan, down 63.31% and 9.24%, respectively [2]. Store Expansion and Brand Strategy - The company is focusing on store expansion and quality, with a net reduction of 98 stores in 2024, ending the year with 5,008 stores [3]. - By the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 4,831, reflecting a net decrease of 177 stores since the beginning of the year [3]. - The company plans to promote sub-brands such as "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure," "Zhuanzhuge," and "Zhou Dasheng Classic," with a focus on low investment and high return for "Zhuanzhuge" [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.085 billion, 1.232 billion, and 1.377 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 7.4%, 13.6%, and 11.8%, respectively [4]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 13.5, 11.9, and 10.6 times [4].