周大生(002867)：业绩短期承压 高分红回馈股东

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to rising gold prices leading to increased store closures among franchisees, but maintains a high dividend policy [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2024, the company recorded revenue of 13.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.67 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.3%, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 26.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), with an annual total dividend of 0.95 yuan per share (tax included), resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 7% [1]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand matrix to adapt to current consumer trends and capture market share, with four main brands focusing on different segments [2]. - The main brand "Zhou Dazheng" is improving store profitability through adjustments in store image and product structure [2]. - "Zhou Dazheng Classic" focuses on gold products blending Eastern culture with modern fashion, while "Zhou Dazheng National Treasure" targets high-end channels [2]. - "Zhuanzhuge" is positioned as a light asset, high-margin brand focusing on cultural jewelry products, with over 60 stores opened [2]. Group 3: Revenue Channels and Profitability - In Q1 2025, franchise business revenue was 1.58 billion yuan, down 58.6%, with a revenue share decrease of 16.3 percentage points to 59.3%, attributed to increased store closures [3]. - Offline self-operated and e-commerce channel revenues were 527 million yuan and 534 million yuan, down 16.3% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 9.4%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 12% and 11% to 1.1 billion yuan and 1.23 billion yuan, respectively, and introduced a 2027 forecast of 1.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.3%, 11.2%, and 12.7% [4]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is expected to be 14 times, reflecting improved consumer demand in the gold and jewelry sector [4]. - The company is assigned a 2025 PE of 17 times, leading to a target price of 17.2 yuan, up from a previous 14.8 yuan [4].