Domestic Macro: Important Dynamics and Focus Points - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated that incremental policies will be introduced based on the situation, with potential for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - Attention is needed on whether relevant policies will be implemented, as well as the impact of significant overseas data releases and changes in US trade policies during the May Day holiday on domestic markets [1] Overseas Macro: Key Data and Policy Impact - The US continues to signal trade easing, with new trade policy signals being closely monitored for their market impact [1] - During the May Day holiday, the US will release GDP data for Europe and the US for Q1, along with April non-farm payroll and PMI data, which are critical as they represent the first monthly data following US tariff policies [1] - The potential cooling of the economy could either bolster optimistic rate cut expectations, enhancing global risk appetite, or raise concerns about US stagflation risks, putting pressure on risk assets [1] Stock Indices: Mixed Signals and Range-Bound Expectations - The A-share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points, driven by increased external demand pressure and the implementation of domestic policies [1] - The resilience of the index is supported by macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic fundamentals and ongoing disturbances from US tariff policies [1] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations influenced by performance disclosures and the interplay of policy expectations, trade policies, and earnings reports during the period from late April to mid-May [1] Gold/Silver: Market Disturbances and Uncertainty in Trends - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict and potential agreements in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation have reduced risk aversion, leading to alternating rebounds in risk asset prices and high adjustment risks for precious metals [1] - However, enhanced expectations for US rate cuts and the continued low levels of the US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries provide some support for precious metals [1] - The upcoming release of key US economic data during the May Day holiday will be crucial, as it could influence rate cut expectations and subsequently impact gold prices, with potential for fluctuations based on market sentiment regarding US stagflation risks [1]
A股：沪指 3300 点波动 关注多因素影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-04-30 06:51