未来房价还会再继续下跌吗

Core Viewpoint - The future trend of housing prices is influenced by various factors, showing a differentiated pattern where some regions may continue to see price declines while others may stabilize or even increase [1][3]. Factors Leading to Potential Price Declines - Population Factors: China's population has begun to decline, with a decrease of 2.08 million in 2023, marking the first sustained decline in over 70 years. This demographic shift is expected to negatively impact housing demand, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities experiencing population outflow and severe aging [3]. - Inventory Pressure: High inventory levels in some third and fourth-tier cities, such as Linyi and Luoyang, where the number of second-hand homes listed exceeds 100,000 and the transaction cycle lasts up to 23 months, may lead to continued price declines in these areas [3]. - Economic Conditions: A slowdown in overall economic growth could suppress income growth and increase employment pressure, thereby reducing housing demand, especially for improvement and investment purposes, which may lead to price declines [3]. Factors Supporting Price Stabilization or Increase - Policy Factors: Central and local governments have implemented various policies to stabilize the housing market, including lowering down payment ratios, optimizing purchase restrictions, and reducing transaction costs. For instance, initiatives like "rent and purchase equality" in Beijing and significant tax reductions in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are expected to stimulate housing demand [3]. - Land Market: The scarcity of land resources, particularly in the context of ongoing urbanization, makes prime land increasingly valuable. The emergence of "land kings" is often seen as a driver for price increases, as rising land costs typically lead developers to pass on these costs to housing prices [3]. - Economic Development: Economic growth directly influences housing prices. In prosperous economic conditions, increased income and job opportunities boost housing demand, leading to price increases. Cities like Nanjing, Chengdu, and Hangzhou have seen new home prices rise by 0.7% month-on-month, driven by their digital economy and advanced manufacturing sectors [3].