IBM Just Boosted Its Dividend. Is It Time to Buy?

Core Viewpoint - IBM has announced a $0.01 per share dividend increase, marking 30 consecutive years of annual payout increases, with a current forward yield of approximately 2.8% [1] Group 1: Dividend and Financial Stability - IBM has maintained uninterrupted quarterly dividends since 1916, raising them through various economic crises, making it attractive for income investors [1] - The company is expected to distribute roughly 47% of its anticipated 2025 free cash flow through dividends over the next year, providing a buffer against potential economic downturns [5] - The forward price-to-free-cash-flow ratio is about 16.5, indicating that IBM stock is reasonably priced for dividend investors [8] Group 2: Economic Environment and Business Performance - IBM's consulting segment faced challenges in the first quarter, with cautious spending from customers and some contract cancellations due to spending cuts [2] - The growth of IBM's generative AI business slowed, adding$ 1 billion in new business, which is about half of the previous quarter's addition, potentially due to macroeconomic uncertainty [3] - Despite these challenges, IBM maintains its full-year revenue growth guidance of at least 5% and free cash flow of around $13.5 billion [4] Group 3: Future Prospects - The upcoming launch of the z17 mainframe in June is expected to trigger upgrade cycles and boost infrastructure revenue, potentially driving additional AI consulting and software revenue [6] - IBM's mission-critical work is somewhat insulated from economic slowdowns, as clients may still need to maintain essential IT spending, and some may pursue digital transformation projects to enhance efficiency [7]